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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051605
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Feb 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Northerly winds continue to
funnel through the Chivela Pass in southern Mexico and are still
generating gale force N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec where
peak seas have diminished to 12 ft. Winds will diminish below 
gale-force late this morning as high pressure in the Gulf of
Mexico shifts northeastward. Seas of 8-10 ft generated by this 
event will continue to affect the SW adjacent waters as far 110W
and southeastward across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El
Salvador through this evening before quickly diminishing. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from near 06N77W to 06N83W to 05N90W. 
The ITCZ extends from 03N91W to 02N120W to beyond 04N140W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N between
119W and 125W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details on an
ongoing Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale force 
winds in this region are expected to end late this morning, then
remain strong through Mon afternoon.

A weakening ridge extends southeastward across the offshore 
waters of Mexico ahead of an approaching cold front along 121W. 
The pressure gradient between the front and the ridge ahead is
tightening and already supporting moderate to fresh NE winds
across the Baja California Norte offshore waters where seas have
built to 7 ft. In the Gulf of California, winds remain light to
gentel with seas to 3 ft. Moderate northerly winds are at the
entrance of the gulf extending to the Jalisco offshore waters.
Light to gentle winds are elsewhere with seas to 7 ft in NW
swell.

For the forecast, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a weakening
cold front will approach Baja California late today, with high 
pressure building across the Baja waters behind it. This will 
produce fresh to near gale force NW-N winds offshore Baja 
California from Cabo San Lazaro northward this afternoon through
Mon night, and through the Gulf of California waters Mon morning
through Thu. Seas during peak winds are forecast to build to 13 
ft in NW swell across Baja Norte, and to 9 ft across the southern
Gulf. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE winds are offshore of Nicaragua, and the Gulf
of Papagayo region and extend to 92W, where seas of 7-10 ft 
prevail. Fresh N-NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama reaching 
beyond the Azuero Peninsula to 02N, and producing seas of 5-8 
ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere, along with 4-6 
ft seas primarily in SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf 
of Papagayo region will prevail through mid-week, reaching near 
gale-force at times, and producing periods of 7-10 ft seas. 
Large fresh swell generated by a Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force 
gap wind event will continue to propagate through the Guatemala 
and El Salvador offshore waters through this evening. Fresh to 
strong N-NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama, mainly at 
night, through Mon night. Moderate winds will then dominate the 
Panama region through Wed.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Weakening surface ridging dominates the open waters N of 14N 
between the Baja California offshore waters to 140W. A cold front  
extends from 30N121W SW to 22N139W. Fresh to strong N to NE 
winds and seas of 8-13 follow this front. The pressure gradient 
between the surface ridge and lower pressure from the ITCZ 
supports a belt of fresh to strong trades N of the ITCZ to 22N 
and W of 118W.

For the forecast, the cold front will approach the Baja 
California Norte waters today. Strong high pressure will build 
in the wake of the front with fresh to strong trades covering 
most of the waters west of 120W by Sun afternoon, and moderate to
fresh trades elsewhere north of the ITCZ by then. Similar 
conditions will continue into early next week. NW swell of 8 ft 
or greater associated with the front will spread SE across the 
northern waters through tonight, then expand across most of the 
waters west of 110W Sun night, aided by the fresh to strong 
trades.

$$
Ramos