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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072129
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Dec 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 10N76W
to 09N88W to 08N102W. The ITCZ extends from 08N102W to 08N117W, 
then resumes west of a surface trough from 09N124W to 08N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 20N115W to 10N115W 
to 06N122W to 10N124W to 20N115W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Strong N winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with fresh
S winds in the northern Gulf of California. Moderate winds are
occurring offshore Cabo Corrientes, otherwise gentle winds
prevail. Seas are 5 to 7 ft near the Gulf of Tehuantepec, one to
two feet in the Gulf of California, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds will persist in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec through early Wed, then redevelop this weekend,
with gale conditions possible Sun. A cold front moving through
Thu and Thu night will lead to fresh to strong winds in the
northern Gulf of California, followed by a period of fresh winds
throughout the Gulf Fri and Sat. For waters W of Baja California,
seas will build in the wake of the front over the weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong winds are occurring in the Papagayo region. 
Gentle winds are occurring elsewhere, locally moderate near the
Azuero Peninsula as well as near the border of Ecuador and Peru.
Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across the waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse in the 
Papagayo region through through Fri. Gentle to moderate winds 
will prevail elsewhere through the next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails across the subtropics, anchored by 1028 mb
high pressure just north of the area near 31N140W. A surface trough 
is embedded in the ITCZ from 10N117W to 06N125W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted near the trough, as well as locally
higher winds and seas. The pressure gradient between the high 
and lower pressure near the ITCZ is producing fresh strong NE to 
E trade winds north of the ITCZ to around 23N and west of 130W, 
along with seas of 8 to 13 ft. Moderate to fresh winds are 
occurring elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west of about 115W 
along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Seas are 5 to 8 ft across the 
remainder of the waters. South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate 
winds prevail.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong trade winds and large seas
in the west-central waters will gradually diminish and subside
through Thu as the pressure gradient weakens. A cold front will 
move south of 30N this evening, reaching from 30N123W to 25N125W
to 25N136W by Wed morning. Fresh N winds and 7 to 8 ft seas are 
expected north of this front. Another cold front is expected to 
move into the northern waters Thu and Thu night, with building 
seas and freshening winds behind it on Fri, between Baja 
California and 135W.

$$
KONARIK