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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021005
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Feb 02 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong cold front is expected
to sweep across the Gulf of Mexico on Fri. Strong high pressure
in its wake will build southward along the Sierra Madre mountains
of Mexico leading to a significant tightening of the pressure 
gradient that will induce a strong gale-force gap wind event in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale-force N winds are forecast to begin
late Thu night before abruptly increasing to strong gale-force 
by Fri afternoon, continuing into early on Sat, with possible 
brief gusts to storm force. Seas will build quickly to near 20 ft
Fri night into early Sat. Conditions will improve on Sun with 
winds diminishing below gale force on Sun and seas subsiding to 
below 8 ft by late Mon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia 
southwestward to 08N79W to 07N85W and to 04N92W. The ITCZ 
extends from 04N92W to 02N102W to 06N113W to 06N125W and 
to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is seen within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 117W-121W. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 
121W-126W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure is over the are, with the associated gradient 
maintaining gentle to moderate northerly winds across the Gulf of
California. Seas over the Gulf are 3-5 ft. Moderate to fresh 
N-NE winds are over the offshore waters of Baja California Sur 
and southwestern Mexico, while gentle N to NE winds are over the 
offshore waters of Baja California Norte. Seas over these waters 
are in the range of 5-7 ft, except 6-8 ft in a long-period NW 
swell S of Cabo San Lazaro. Strong to near gale-force N winds 
are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas of 5-7 ft. Moderate or 
weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere in the 
basin.

For the forecast, the strong to near gale-force N winds in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec will briefly diminish to fresh speeds this 
afternoon, then pulse back up to strong to near gale-force early
this evening and to gale-force late tonight. These winds are 
forecast to abruptly increase to strong gale-force by Fri 
afternoon and continue into early Sat, with possible brief gusts 
to storm force. Along with these winds, seas are expected to 
build rather quickly to near 20 ft from late Fri into Sat. With 
strong high pressure N of the area shifting E from late Sat into 
Sun, this will allow for the gap wind gale conditions to diminish
to strong to near gale-force into Mon night. A surge of fresh to
strong NW winds will impact the central and southern Gulf of 
California tonight into early Fri before diminishing Fri 
afternoon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Overnight ASCAT data shows fresh to strong NE-E gap winds in the
Gulf of Papagayo region and over the Nicaraguan offshore waters 
region, extending westward to near 90W. Seas are 6-8 ft in the 
Gulf of Papagayo region and 5-7 ft over the Nicaraguan offshore 
waters. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are over the Gulf of 
Panama. They reach southward to near 06N. Seas of 4-6 ft are over
these waters. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and moderate seas
prevail elsewhere over these waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of 
Papagayo region will prevail into early next week. Seas will be 
near or to 8 ft in the areas of strongest winds. Large swell 
generated by an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec strong gale-force 
gap wind event is expected to begin to propagate through the 
Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters starting Fri night and 
begin to subside on Sun. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1025 mb is centered near 32N124W, with a ridge 
extending southeastward to the vicinity of Cabo Corrientes, 
Mexico. High pressure covers the area N of 18N and w of 118W. A 
cold front has moved into the NW part of the area. It extends 
from near 30N136W to 27N140W. Overnight ASCAT data indicates 
fresh to strong winds ahead of the front N of 27N and E to near 
130W and behind the front N of 29N. Seas with these winds are in 
the range of 8-10 ft. Satellite imagery shows patches of rain 
along with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms N of 
about 27N and W of 130W. The pressure gradient between the high 
pressure system and lower pressure in the deep tropics supports 
fresh to strong NE to E trade winds, mainly south of 20N and 
west of 112W as depicted in overnight ASCAT data passes. In 
addition, a trough that extends from near 17N117W to 08N120W is 
assisting with the presence of the fresh to strong NE to E trade 
winds. Seas are 8-10 ft W of the trough to 122W and from 14N to 
17N. Seas elsewhere over these waters are 8-9 ft due to a mix of 
NE and NW swell. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas 
prevail over the remainder of the area.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds and seas
of 8-10 ft will change little over most of the area through Fri 
night. The aforementioned high pressure will slide east- 
southeastward toward northern Baja California through early Thu 
in response to the cold front that is over the NW part of the 
area. The cold front will begin to weaken later today, then 
stall as it reaches from near near 30N129W to 28N133W and to 
26N140W by late tonight, at which time associated southerly 
winds ahead of it will have diminished to moderate to fresh 
speeds, and winds behind it will have become light to gentle and 
N to NE in direction. NW swell over the NW and north-central 
waters producing seas of 8-10 ft will be the main issue for 
mariners by late tonight. These seas will be primarily to the NW 
of a line from 30N127W to 28N133W and to 25N140W. The NW swell 
will slowly decay by late Fri night allowing for these seas to 
subside slightly.

$$
Aguirre