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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130912
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Feb 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Fresh to strong N winds will 
develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late tonight into Fri morning,
as the pressure gradient increases between a cold front moving 
through the western Gulf of Mexico and high pressure building 
over central Mexico. Winds will briefly reach gale force late Fri
morning, with winds remaining strong through Fri night. Rough 
seas will accompany these winds. Winds and seas will diminish Sat
morning. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 04N126W. The ITCZ 
continues from 04N126W to 05N133W, and resumes near 05N136W and 
continues beyond 05N140W. A trough has been analyzed from 03N136W
to 09N132W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 03N 
to 15N between 107W and 122W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high centered near 25N130W extends ridging through the
Mexico offshore waters, and a trough has been analyzed over Baja
California. Farther east, a 1007 mb low is centered over east- 
central Mexico. This pattern supports moderate NW winds over the 
waters offshore of Baja California and offshore of southwestern 
Mexico, with locally fresh winds occurring offshore of Jalisco. 
Gentle to locally moderate N to NW winds prevail elsewhere. 
Moderate seas of 4 to 7 ft are noted through the Baja California 
offshore waters, with slight seas occurring through the Gulf of 
California and offshore of southern Mexico. 

For the forecast, away from developing gale force winds in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec, locally fresh NW winds will be possible 
between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro as well as offshore of 
Jalisco at times today. A cold front is forecast to move into the
Baja California Norte waters early Fri, and moderate to fresh N 
to NW winds will follow the front as it progresses southeastward 
through the Baja California waters through Sat. Winds are also 
forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds ahead of the front
over the northern Gulf of California on Fri, with seas building 
to around 7 ft. A new long-period NW swell associated with the 
front will produce rough to very rough seas north of 28N by Fri 
morning, and north of 20N by Sat morning. Peak seas of 12 to 14 
ft are expected north of Punta Eugenia Fri afternoon through Sat 
morning. Looking ahead, strong to near-gale force winds will 
redevelop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Sun and continue into 
early next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh E winds are noted in the Gulf of Papagayo as 
low pressure prevails over northwestern Colombia and high 
pressure remains in the northern Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to 
gentle winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft prevail in the remainder of 
the forecast waters. 

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds will 
occur in the Gulf of Papagayo through Sat morning as a tight 
pressure gradient prevails between high pressure in the northern 
Caribbean and low pressure over northwestern Colombia. Locally 
rough seas may accompany these winds. Winds may briefly decrease 
this weekend before fresh to strong winds redevelop early next 
week. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate 
seas will prevail across the waters offshore of Central and South
America into early next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad ridging extends through much of the eastern Pacific 
waters, with a 1022 mb high centered near 25N130W. Moderate to 
locally fresh NE to E winds are occurring between 08N and 18N 
west of 110W along the periphery of the ridge, and a residual N 
to NW swell is producing seas to 8 ft in this region. Elsewhere, 
gentle winds are noted near the center of the high pressure. A 
tightening pressure gradient between the ridge and a cold front 
north of the area is supporting fresh to locally strong W winds 
north of 28.5N and west of 125W. Otherwise, gentle to locally 
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail south of the 
monsoon trough and ITCZ. 

For the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient between high 
pressure over the eastern Pacific and the approaching cold front 
will support fresh to locally strong W to SW winds ahead of the 
front today, generally north of 28N. Winds will turn to the NW 
and weaken behind the front. A new long-period NW swell 
associated with this front will produce rough seas north of 27N 
by late this morning, and north of 22N by Fri morning. Peak seas 
of 12 to 16 ft are expected north of 25N this evening through Sat
morning, before seas slowly diminish on Sun. Elsewhere, rough 
seas promoted by a residual NW swell will prevail from 08N to 20N
west of 130W today before being reinforced by the aforementioned
new NW swell this weekend. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are 
expected between 10N and 20N west of 115W through this weekend. 
Looking ahead, a new NW swell will support rough seas in the 
northwestern waters, north of 10N and west of 120W, Sun into 
early next week. 

$$ 
ADAMS