000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160920
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Jan 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning:
The most recent ASCAT pass confirmed the presence of 40 kt winds
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. In addition, the most recent
Altimeter pass confirmed seas to 16 ft within the area of these
winds. This event has likely reached its peak intensity, and
winds and seas will decrease today. A building ridge across the
eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico and the
Gulf of America supports this gap wind event. Seas generated from
this event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with
seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far west as 105W by this
morning. Gale conditions are expected to end early today. A
reinforcing cold front is forecast to move across the Gulf of
America this weekend. As the front moves SE, a gap wind event of
gale-force winds will develop once again over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Gale force winds will likely begin Sat night. Marine
interests transiting across the Gulf of Tehuantepec today and
over the weekend should be aware of these gap wind events and 
take the necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions 
over the affected waters.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website- 
https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure located 
over northern Colombia near 11N75W to 07N87W to 04N107W. The 
ITCZ continues from 04N107W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 03.5N to 08N E of 90W. Similar
convection is depicted from 07N to 09N between 120W and 125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Tehuantepec region. 
Refer to the Special Features section above for more details. 

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing light to gentle NW to N winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft 
in NW swell. Moderate NW winds are noted over most of the 
central and southern Gulf of California according to a recent
ASCAT pass, with seas of 1 to 3 ft. Gentle winds and slight seas
prevail elsewehre across the Gulf of California. Outside of the 
Tehuantepec area, light to gentle winds and moderate seas in NW 
swell prevail elsewhere across the Mexican offshore forecast 
waters.

For the forecast, strong gale force winds and very rough seas are 
expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early this morning. 
Please, see the Special Features section above for more 
information. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle to moderate
NW winds are expected with seas 3 ft or less. Elsewhere, gentle 
to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail throughout the 
forecast period.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong to near-gale NE to E winds prevail across the Papagayo 
region and downstream to near 88W. Seas are 4 to 7 ft within 
these winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are observed 
with light to moderate seas primarily in northerly swell.

For the forecast, building high pressure north of the region 
will support fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the Gulf 
of Papagayo through the forecast period, except for this morning 
when strong to near gale-force winds prevail with moderate to 
rough seas. Another round of near gale-force winds with rough 
seas is possible Sun night into Mon. Pulsing moderate to fresh 
northerly winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama through Tue 
night. Seas generated by the gap wind events in the Gulfs of 
Tehuantepec and Papagayo will propagate across the offshore 
waters of Guatemala and El Salvador today with seas likely 
building to around 11 ft. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere through the 
forecast period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough is analyzed from 11N115W to 18N110W. A cluster
of moderate convection is depicted from 12N to 18N between 106W 
and 114W in association with this trough. Moderate to fresh NE
to E winds and moderate seas are associated with this feature 
based on scatterometer and altimeter data. Otherwise, high 
pressure located well N of area has a ridge extending across most
of the waters N of 20N and W of 110W. A gentle to moderate 
anticyclonic flow is noted under the influence of the ridge. Elsewhere
across the forecast waters, moderate or weaker winds and seas 
prevail. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned trough is forecast to slowly 
move westward over the next couple of days. A weak low pressure 
may develop near the northern end of the trough by Sun. Mainly 
moderate winds and moderate to locally rough seas will accompany 
this feature. A long period swell event will reach the NW 
forecast area tonight, with seas likely building to around 11 ft 
Sat morning. A cold front will reach the NW corner of the 
forecast area late tonight into Sat morning. By Sun morning, the
front will stall and extend from 30N135W to 19N140W. Fresh to 
strong southerly winds and rough seas are expected this evening 
ahead of the front north of 27N and west of 135W. Moderate W to 
NW and rough seas in NW swell are forecast in the wake of the 
front.

$$
KRV