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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 060840

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Dec 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0820 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 10N75W
to 07N95W. The ITCZ extends from 07N95W to 09N110W to 07N130W to
08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
noted from 03N to 09N between 77W and 83W, from 06N to 09N
between 96W and 98W, and from 06N to 10.5N between 109W and 127W.


Fresh N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as well as west of Baja
California have diminished to moderate in the past few hours.
Moderate winds are in the central Gulf of California with gentle
winds elsewhere in the Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail 
elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 8 ft west of Baja California and 2 to 4
ft over the Gulf of California. Seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail 
elsewhere over the Mexico offshore waters.

For the forecast, fresh SW winds will develop in the northern 
Gulf of California tonight, increasing to fresh to strong Tue, 
diminishing Tue night. Fresh to strong SW winds will return Thu 
night, diminishing by Fri. Fresh to strong N winds will develop 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Tue, diminishing Tue evening. 
Fresh NW to N winds are possible near Cabo Corrientes Tue through
Wed. Light to gentle winds should prevail elsewhere through mid-
week. A cold front may approach northern Baja California late 
this week resulting in freshening winds throughout the Gulf of 
California to Cabo Corrientes, and building seas west of Baja 


Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is currently 
seen on satellite imagery along the monsoon trough, off the 
coasts of Panama and northern Colombia. Fresh to strong NE winds
are over the Gulf of Papagayo early this morning, with seas near
6 ft. Gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. 
Moderate S-SW winds are south of the monsoon trough, where seas 
are in the 4 to 6 ft range, locally to 7 ft west of Colombia and 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds in the Papagayo 
region will prevail through Tue night, then moderate to fresh 
through Thu. Fresh to strong winds may return late in the week. 
Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will continue S of the monsoon 
trough this week. 


High pressure prevails over the waters north of the ITCZ. The 
pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure 
near the ITCZ is producing fresh strong NE to E trade winds 
north of the ITCZ to around 25N and west of 120W. Moderate to 
fresh winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west of 110W. 
South of the ITCZ, moderate winds prevail. Seas are in the 8 to 
10 ft range over the area of strong winds north of the ITCZ, and 
5 to 8 ft elsewhere, except 7 to 9 ft north of 27N between 120W
and 127W in fresh northerly swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and seas of 8 to 11
ft will continue north of the ITCZ to 25N and west of 120W 
through early Tue due to the strong pressure gradient in that 
area. The fresh N winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft to the west of 
Baja California Norte will persist into early Tue. A weak cold 
front will move south of 30N Tue, reaching from 30N126W to 
24N135W to 26N140W by Wed morning. Fresh N winds and 8 to 10 ft 
seas are expected north of this front, before the front weakens 
by early Thu. Looking ahead, another cold front may approach the 
northern waters late this week, with building seas and freshening
winds behind it.