AXPZ20 KNHC 041541
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Jun 4 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to
10N95W to 1010 mb low pres located near 08N121W to a second 1011
mb low pres situated near 07N133W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection can be found from 01N to 08N E of
90 to the coast of Colombia, from 06N to 10N between 90W and
110W, and from 05N to 10N between 116W and 128W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds, with the exception
of moderate to fresh NW winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta
Eugenia. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in NW to N swell across this area.
In the Gulf of California, winds are light and variable with seas
in the 1 to 2 ft range, expect 3 to 4 ft near the entrance to
the Gulf. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail across the
remainder of Mexican offshore waters, with seas of 4 to 6 ft
primarily in SW swell.
For the forecast, a ridge will continue to control the weather
pattern across the waters W of the Baja California Peninsula
through at least Mon with little change in winds and seas. As a
result, expect gentle to moderate NW to N winds, with the
exception of moderate to fresh winds between Cabo San Lazaro and
Punta Eugenia. A developing low pressure over the northern Gulf
of California will support fresh to locally strong S to SW winds
at night Mon and Tue. Moderate to fresh winds are expected near
Cabo San Lucas at night through the forecast period. Moderate NW
winds across the SW Mexican offshore waters will diminish to
light to gentle speeds on Mon.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Light to gentle SW to W winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen
across the Central America offshore waters while gentle to
moderate southerly winds and seas in the 6 to 8 ft in SW swell
are noted between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Light to
gentle winds prevail across the offshore waters of Colombia and
in the Gulf of Panama, with seas of 3 to 5 ft offshore the W
coast of Colombia, and 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of Panama.
For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate SW to W winds will
prevail through mid-week. Cross equatorial SW swell, with seas of
8 to 9 ft, will continue to propagate across the waters between
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands today, reaching the offshore
waters of W Panama and Costa Rica by tonight with seas building
to 8 ft. This swell event will gradually subside Mon night into
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure well N of the area, anchored by a 1031 mb high
located near 44N140W, extends a ridge across the forecast waters
N of 15N W of 110W generating a gentle to moderate anticyclonic
flow. Winds increase some to moderate to fresh speeds on the
northern semicircle of the aforementioned low pressure centers
located along the monsoon. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft across
the open waters in mixed swell with the exception of 7 to 9 ft S
of 06N between 93W and 117W due to S to SW swell.
For the forecast, the ridge will remain in place through mid-
week while the low pressure centers along the monsoon trough
will drift westward. Long period S to SW swell from the Southern
Hemisphere will continue to propagate across most of the waters
S of 10N between 92W and 110W by tonight. Seas generated by
strong northerly winds just W of the State of California will
push S of 30N Mon through Tue, with seas 8 to 10 ft affecting
roughly the waters N of 25N between 120W and 135W.