AXPZ20 KNHC 292202
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Nov 29 2022
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building
over the Gulf of Mexico and the eastern north Pacific monsoon
trough will support gale force winds over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Strong northerly winds will begin Wed night with
gale force winds occurring from Thu morning through Fri morning.
Winds may briefly drop just below gale force on Thu afternoon but
will quickly become gale force by Thu evening. Seas will build
to 8-10 ft during this time. Strong winds will persist Fri
afternoon through the weekend as well as seas remaining 8-10 ft.
Winds could pulse to near gale- force Fri night and Sat night.
Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 09N79W
to a 1010 mb low near 07N86W to a 1011 mb low near 13N116W to
09N121W. The ITCZ extends from 09N121W to beyond 08N140W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from
07N to 16N between 93W and 133W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 05N to 11N and E of 97W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Moderate to locally fresh NW winds prevail across the offshore
waters of Baja California Norte. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in fresh NW
swell. Moderate to locally fresh N winds prevail in the northern Gulf
of California with 2 to 3 ft seas. Elsewhere, mainly gentle NW
winds prevail. Seas are 5 to 6 ft across the remaining waters of
Baja California, 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California, and 3 to
5 ft between Tehuantepec and Acapulco offshore waters.
For the forecast, the NW to N swell over the Baja California
Norte offshore waters will slowly subside through Wed morning. A
strong and significant gap wind event will develop in the
Tehuantepec region starting Wed night, reaching gale force Thu
morning through Fri morning. Winds will then remain strong and
could pulse to near gale- force Fri night and Sat night.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh NE winds are noted in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Light
to gentle variable winds are prevailing elsewhere N of 06N and
seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the waters N of monsoon trough, along
06N-07N. Moderate SW to W winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are to the S
of the trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail off the Ecuador
offshore waters to the Galapagos Islands with seas 4 to 6 ft.
Scattered showers are active across the coastal waters of
Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica, and extend southward to 08N.
For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and seas will persist
across most of the region into late week as a weak pressure
pattern prevails. Fresh gap winds over the Papagayo region will
persist into the upcoming weekend. Winds across the Papagayo
region will pulse to strong each night through Sat, and extend
beyond 92W Wed night through Fri, then retract to E of 90W Sat.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The NE Pacific ridge extends SE into the area waters, between
115W and 140W. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and seas
of 6 to 7 ft are dominating most area N of the monsoon
trough/ITCZ to 21N. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 6 to 8
ft are noted elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to
locally fresh S/SW winds are noted S of the ITCZ/monsoon trough W
of 110W. Gentle to moderate SW winds are noted S of the monsoon
trough E of 110W.
For the forecast, little change in marine conditions is expected
through early Wed. A strong cold front is expected to reach the
far NW waters Thu morning, bringing fresh to locally strong SW
winds ahead of it on Wed night. Behind the front, strong to near
gale force NE winds are expected. The NW swell behind this
advancing front will raise seas 15 to 17 ft across the far NW
waters near 30N140W by late Thu. The front is expected to reach
from 30N125W to 26N140W by Fri morning before weakening
considerably by Sat morning.