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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 020230

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Dec 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from northern Costa Rica near 09N83W 
to 08N95W to 1008 mb low pressure near 10N119W to beyond 06N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is evident from 10N to 13N between
94W and 97W, and from 13N to 16N between 105W and 106W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 13N
between 111W and 113W.


A surface ridge extends from 1025 mb high pressure near 33N133W
to south of Cabo San Lucas. Fresh N winds persist off Baja
California Norte, between the high pressure and lower pressure
over northwest Mexico. NW swell of 7 to 9 ft is evident north of
Punta Eugenia, with 5 to 7 ft elsewhere over open waters north of
20N. Light breezes and slight seas persist over the Gulf of
California. Farther south, gentle to moderate breezes are noted
off southern Mexico, with combined seas of 3 to 5 ft in mixed

For the forecast, the high pressure centered west of Baja 
California will strengthen through Mon, allowing fresh to strong 
NW winds across the Gulf of California Sun through late Mon. 
Meanwhile, large NW swell off Baja California north of Cabo San 
Lazaro will gradually subside through Mon, then build again into 
mid week as a new group of NW swell enters the region. Farther 
south, northerly gap winds may reach gale-force Mon night in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec as a cold front moves into southern Mexico. 


An earlier scatterometer pass indicated fresh gap winds reaching
from the Gulf of Papagayo to as far west as 95W. A recent
altimeter satellite pass showed seas to 6 ft in the area of fresh
winds. Gentle breezes are noted elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft seas in
mixed swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected across 
and well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region through early 
next week, pulsing to strong speeds overnight. Gentle to moderate
winds are forecast elsewhere. Moderate combined seas will 
persist into early next week in a mix of SW and NW swell. 


The subtropical ridge extends across the region north of 20N.
Earlier scatterometer satellite data and recent ship observations
confirmed mostly fresh to strong NE winds south of the ridge from
10N to 20N west of 115W, with 8 to 11 ft. A broad upper trough 
extends along 115W. Divergent flow aloft combined with convergent
trade winds are supporting the showers and thunderstorms
described above along the monsoon trough. Farther south, SE to S
swell to 8 ft persists south of the equator between 105W and
120W. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate combined seas 
persist elsewhere.

For the forecast, the ridge will gradually weaken through early
next week, allowing trade winds to diminish slightly. Reinforcing
NW swell will continue to move into the region west of 120W,
maintaining 8 to 11 ft combined seas. The southerly swell south
of the equator will subside below 8 ft Saturday.