AXPZ20 KNHC 282103
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Jun 28 2022
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Celia has become post-tropical; Post-Tropical Cyclone Celia is
centered near 22.6N 121.4W at 28/2100 UTC moving WNW at 9 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are near 11
ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the
center of Celia. Celia is moving toward the west-northwest and
this general motion is expected to continue through midweek.
Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Celia
is expected to dissipate by the end of the week. Swells will
continue to affect portions of the southern Baja California
peninsula through this evening. These conditions could cause
life- threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products
from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small low pressure
system centered a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern
Mexico, near 11N101W, are beginning to show signs of organization.
Minimum central pressure of this low is 1009 mb, and it is
producing scattered moderate convection from 09N to 13N between
99W and 107W. Fresh E winds are occurring N of the center with
seas of 6 to 8 ft in the general region. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional gradual
development during the next couple of days, and a tropical
depression could form while the system moves westward to west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through the end of the week.
There is a medium chance of tropical formation in the next 48
A tropical wave is along 105W north of 06N to just S of Jalisco,
moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Nearby convection is primarily
associated with low pressure described in the Special Features
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near the Papagayo
region at 10N86W to 1009 mb low pressure near 11N101W to 11N115W.
The ITCZ extends from 08N125W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 81W and
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A small but well-defined low pressure, depicted in detail in the
Special Features Section above, is now west of the regional
waters off SW Mexico and is moving away from the area. Still,
fresh E winds associated with this low impact waters well
offshore Oaxaca and Guerrero this evening, along with seas of 6
to 8 ft, before conditions improve by Wed morning. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail for the remainder of the area.
Seas are 4 to 7 ft across the offshore waters, and 1 to 3 ft in
the Gulf of California north of the entrance.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec overnight into the early morning hours
into the weekend, fresh to strong Wed night through Thu.
Moderate to fresh winds will develop offshore Baja California
Norte as well as in the central and northern Gulf of California
by the end of the week into the weekend. Low pressure may bring
increased winds and seas to areas near and SW of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec Sun into early next week.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate winds are occurring in the Papagayo region, with mainly
gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across the
offshore waters in southerly swell, locally 7 ft S of the
For the forecast, moderate to fresh pulsing NE to E winds are
expected in the Papagayo region through early Fri as the trade
wind flow increases across the SW Caribbean. Light to gentle
winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough with
gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the monsoon trough
through the next several days. Atlantic Potential Tropical
Cyclone Two will cross the Caribbean this week and may bring
increased winds and seas to portions of the Pacific offshore
Central America this weekend.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Celia and low pressure west of southwest
High pressure dominates the forecast area north of the ITCZ and
monsoon trough and west of Celia. Moderate to locally fresh N-NE
winds dominate the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough
west of 130W, and north of 20N between Celia and 130W. Mainly
light and variable winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon
trough and west of 105W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate the open
waters outside of Celia, locally 8 ft south of the Equator and
west of 95W.
For the forecast, Celia will continue to weaken dissipate by the
end of the week. A set of southerly swell will continue to bring
seas of 7 to 9 ft across the waters south of the Equator and
west of 95W over the next 48 hours or so before decaying.