577 
AXPZ20 KNHC 212121
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed May 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an active tropical wave is analyzed along 107W from 
04N to 16N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is occurring from 10N to 15N between 
100W and 108W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Pacific near 10N86W and 
extends westward to 12N100W to 07N114W. The ITCZ continues from 
07N114W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 83W and 90W, and 
from 05N to 11N between 95W and 135W. Clusters of moderate to 
strong convection are N of the ITCZ to 09N and W of 135W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California,
anchored by a 1028 mb high pressure centered near 34N135W. This 
system is supporting gentle to moderate NW winds W of the Baja 
California peninsula. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in NW swell N of Punta 
Eugenia, and 4 to 6 ft between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lucas. 
Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf 
of California, light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft primarily
in SW swell prevail, with the exception of 1 to 3 ft seas in the
Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather 
pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California through the
weekend, producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Seas 
generated by strong winds offshore California will continue to 
propagate across the waters N of Punta Eugenia this week, leading
to moderate to rough seas across this region. Moderate to fresh 
NW winds will pulse offshore of Cabo San Lucas each night through
this weekend as a trough remains over the Gulf of California. In
the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds and slight seas 
are expected through Fri. Seas are forecast to build to around 5 
ft near the entrance to the Gulf over the upcoming weekend. 
Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are 
expected across the remainder of the offshore forecast waters 
into this weekend. 

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form late this 
weekend or early next week several hundred miles south of the 
southern coast of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for 
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form 
around the middle of next week while moving westward to west- 
northwestward at 10 to 13 kt. Latest Tropical Weather Outlook
gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone development
through 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh NE winds
across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to about 87W. Light
westerly winds are noted N of the monsoon trough with light to
gentle southerly winds are seen S of it. Seas are generally 4 to
6 ft, except 5 to 7 ft SW of the Galapagos Islands. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail
across the Papagayo region over the next several days, pulsing to
strong speeds at night tonight through this weekend. Locally 
rough seas may accompany these winds. Looking ahead, large swells
from the Southern Hemisphere will propagate across the offshore 
waters of Central and South American this weekend, promoting 
rough seas in the region.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

High pressure of 1028 mb is located north of the area near 
34N135W. Its associated ridge dominates most of the waters N of 
the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough and W of 110W. Satellite derived wind
data indicate an area of fresh to strong NE to E winds from 08N 
to 14N and W of 126W due to the pressure gradient between the 
ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ. Seas are 7
to 9 ft within these winds based on altimeter data. Rough seas 
in N swell continue to propagate across the waters N of 26N 
between 119W and 132W. Farther south, rough seas from the Southern
Hemisphere are crossing the equator, reaching near 04N110W 
according to an altimeter pass. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate roughly the 
waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W through the upcoming weekend.
Under the influence of this system, mainly a moderate to locally 
fresh anticyclonic flow is expected. N swell, related to strong 
NW winds blowing W of California will continue to spread across 
the NE waters, particularly N of 26N between 120W and 132W through
Fri before subsiding below 8 ft late Fri night into Sat.

$$
GR