AXPZ20 KNHC 291431
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon May 29 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 11N99W to 06N125W. The
ITCZ continues from 06N125W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 80W
and 85W, and from 04N to 11N between 99W and 110W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 116W and
124W, and from 05N to 08N between 130W and 140W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Moderate NW winds prevail W of the Baja Peninsula. Seas are 4 to
6 ft in S swell. Gentle winds are noted in the Gulf of
California, except for moderate winds over the northern Gulf.
Seas of 2-3 ft are noted over the northern Gulf of California,
with seas of 1-2 ft elsewhere over the Gulf. Light to gentle
winds prevail across the remainder of the offshore waters of the
southern Mexico coast with moderate seas. Smoke from agricultural
fires may be impacting waters offshore Chiapas.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between subtropical high
pressure in the Pacific and a surface trough near the Gulf of
California will support pulses of fresh winds during the
overnight and early morning hours west of the Baja Peninsula.
Fresh to strong S to SW gap winds will briefly occur in the
northern Gulf of California each night through the forecast
period. Seas of 4-6 ft across the Mexico offshore waters will
continue through most of the week.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gentle to locally moderate S winds prevail in the Ecuador and
Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Light to gentle winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. Smoke from agricultural
fires in Central America may be restricting visibility N of
For the forecast, light to gentle winds prevail north of the
monsoon trough. Gentle to locally moderate SW monsoon winds are
expected in the South American offshore zones. Moderate S to SW
long period swell will dominate. Smoke from agricultural fires in
Central America may occasionally restrict visibility for
offshore waters of Nicaragua northward.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure prevails over the northern waters. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N
of the ITCZ to near 15N and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds
are noted S of the monsoon trough and E of 120W. Light to gentle
winds are noted elsewhere. Seas range 5-7 ft S of 15N, and 4-6 ft
N of 15N.
For the forecast, no major changes are expected. The ridge will
continue to dominate the region north of 10N and west of 110W
through mid-week. Mainly moderate NE trade winds will persist
across the southern periphery of the ridge, especially west of
120W, and some locally fresh E winds are expected just N of the
ITCZ. A new set of long- period S to SW swell will approach the
eastern tropical Pacific Wed.