AXPZ20 KNHC 012118
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Dec 1 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 09N75W to
08N100W to 11N117W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 110W and
140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 10N to 16N
between 94W and 115W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Strong high pressure of 1030 mb located near 34N137W extends a
ridge SE across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California.
Fresh to strong NW to N winds are noted N of Punta Eugenia with
seas of 8 to 9 ft in NW swell. In the Gulf of California gentle
to moderate W to NW winds are noted over the N and central parts
of the Gulf based on scatterometer data, while light to gentle
winds are across the southern part of the Gulf. Seas are 1 to 2
ft, except 2 to 3 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. Elsewhere
across the Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds prevail,
with the exception of gentle to moderate northerly winds in the
vicinity of Cabo Corrientes. Seas are 3 to 5 ft primarily in NW
For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the waters W of Baja California producing
moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds through early next week.
Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are expected in the Gulf of
California Sun trough Mon as high pressure settles over the
Great Basin of the United States. Additional pulses of NW swell
will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters of
Baja California during the next several days. Farther south,
light breezes and moderate seas in mixed swell will persist off
southern Mexico. The next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec
region is forecast to begin on Sun, with gale conditions possible
Mon night through Wed night.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are blowing across the Papagayo
region extending to near 92W based on recent satellite derived
wind data. Seas across this area are 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to
moderate N winds are seen in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere,
light to gentle offshore winds are north of the monsoon trough
with gentle to moderate winds south of it. Seas of 4 to 6 ft
prevail across the area primarily in NW swell.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected across
and well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region through early
next week, pulsing to strong speeds tonight. Gentle to moderate
winds are forecast elsewhere. Moderate combined seas will
persist into early next week in a mix of SW and NW swell.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Strong high pressure of 1030 mb located near 34N137W dominates
most of forecast waters N of 15N and W of 110W. The pressure
gradient between this system and the monsoon trough/ITCZ is
supporting a large area of fresh to strong winds north of the
monsoon trough/ITCZ to about 27N and W of 120W. Recent scatterometer
data confirmed the presence of these wind speeds. Seas are 8 to
10 ft within these winds. Altimeter data indicate seas of 8 to 10
ft, primarily in NW swell, S of 02S between 105W and 112W.
For the forecast, a pretty tight pressure gradient across the
area between the above mentioned high pressure, that will shift
eastward, and lower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon
trough/ITCZ will continue support a large area of fresh to strong
NE to E winds mainly S of 25N on Sat, and S of 20N on Sun. A new
set of long period NW swell will reach the NE corner of the
forecast region on Sun.