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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 280841

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Jun 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0740 UTC.


Recently downgraded Tropical Depression Celia is centered near
21.8N 119.6W at 28/0900 UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated 
minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently around 12
ft. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 
nm of the center of Celia, except within 120 nm in the north 
quadrant. Celia is moving toward the west-northwest and this 
general motion is expected to continue through midweek. Weakening
is forecast during the next couple of days, and Celia is 
expected to become a post-tropical remnant low later today. Swells
will continue to affect portions of the southern Baja California
peninsula through the day today. These conditions could cause 
life-threatening surf and rip currents.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at and Forecast/ 
Advisory at for 
more details.


A tropical wave is along 102W/103W north of 06N to southwest 
Mexico, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is 
described below.


The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near the Papagayo
region at 10N86W to 1009 mb low pressure near 11N98W to 08N105W
to 12N116W to 08N124W. The ITCZ extends from 08N124W to beyond
05N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
noted from 06N to 10N between 90W and 112W, and from 10N to 13N 
between 96W and 100W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
06N to 09N between 77W and 84W.


Recently downgraded Tropical Depression Celia is west of the
offshore waters of Baja California Sur with winds having
diminishedto gentle to moderate across the offshore waters 
there. Seas have also subsided to less than 8 ft. Moderate to 
fresh N-NE winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as well as to the
south of there near a small but well-defined area of low 
pressure which is beginning to shift beyond the offshore waters. 
Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 7 ft 
across the offshore waters, and 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of 
California north of the entrance.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec overnight into the early morning hours
into the weekend, fresh to strong Wed night through Thu. Moderate
to fresh winds will develop offshore Baja California Norte as 
well as in the central and northern Gulf of California by the end
of the week into the weekend. Moderate NW swell may move into 
the waters off Baja California Norte this weekend.


Moderate to locally fresh winds are occurring in the Papagayo
region, with mainly gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are
mainly 4 to 6 ft across the offshore waters in southerly swell, 
locally 7 ft offshore Ecuador.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh pulsing NE to E winds are 
expected in the Papagayo region through early Fri as the trade 
wind flow increases across the SW Caribbean. Light to gentle 
winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough with 
gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the monsoon trough 
through the next several days.


Please see the Special Features section above for details on
recently downgraded Tropical Depression Celia.

High pressure dominates the forecast area north of the ITCZ and 
monsoon trough and west of Celia. Moderate to locally fresh N-NE
winds dominate the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough
west of 130W, and north of 20N between Celia and 130W. Mainly
light and variable winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon
trough and west of 105W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate the open
waters outside of Celia, locally 8 ft south of the Equator and 
west of 95W.

For the forecast, Celia will continue to weaken and become post-
tropical this afternoon. A small but well-defined 1009 mb area 
of low pressure located a few hundred nautical miles offshore of 
the coast of southern Mexico continues to produce disorganized 
shower and thunderstorm activity mainly north and west of the 
center. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more 
conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a
tropical depression could form by this weekend while the system 
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt with a low
chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. A set of 
southerly swell will continue to bring seas of 7 to 9 ft across 
the waters south of the Equator and west of 95W over the next 48 
hours or so before decaying.