000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252119
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Apr 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

An equatorial trough runs westward from the coastal border of 
Colombia and Panama to 08N94W. An ITCZ continues from 08N94W 
across 07N115W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is seen near the trough from 03N to 07N between
78W and 89W, including the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama
and Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is present near the 
ITCZ from 04N to 10N between 110W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge continues to dominate waters west of Baja
California, while a surface trough is over the Gulf of California.
The pressure gradient between these two features is supporting 
moderate to fresh northerly winds with 5 to 7 ft seas west of 
Baja California and near the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate with
locally fresh westerly winds and 2 to 5 ft seas are evident at
the Gulf of California. Mainly gentle W to NW to N winds and 
seas at 4 to 5 ft prevail across the remainder of the central and
southern Mexico offshore waters.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh westerly gap winds at the 
northern and central Gulf of California will pulse to between 
fresh and strong with locally near-gale force Fri evening through
early Sat morning. Strong high pressure across the East Pacific 
will sustain moderate to fresh with locally strong northerly 
winds west of Baja California and near the Revillagigedo Islands,
along with rough to every rough seas through Sat night. As the 
high weakens starting Sun, both winds and seas should gradually 
subside through early next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

An upper-level trough is triggering widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms at the offshore waters of Guatemala and 
El Salvador. Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for 
additional convection in the discussion area. Fresh easterly 
winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft are noted in the Papagayo region. 
Moderate to fresh N winds with 4 to 5 ft seas are present at the 
Gulf of Panama. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas at 3 
to 5 ft in moderate, long-period S swell exist off Ecuador and 
near the Galapagos Island. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to
5 ft are found in the rest of the offshore waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeasterly winds and rough 
seas are expected at the Papagayo region through Fri morning, 
then moderate to fresh winds with moderate seas through Sat 
morning. Moderate to fresh N winds will linger in the Gulf of 
Panama until late this evening. Gentle to moderate winds with 
moderate seas will prevail elsewhere through early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A frontal trough curves southwestward from near the Channel
Islands, California to 28N127W. Otherwise, a broad ridge 
associated with a 1031 mb high near 32N139W dominates the waters
north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate N to NE 
trades with seas at 5 to 6 ft dominate north of 21N and west of 
120W. Moderate to fresh trades and 6 to 9 ft seas exist from 07N 
to 21N and W of 110W, locally strong winds west of 133W. Gentle 
to moderate E to SE to S winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate, 
long-period S swell prevail near the ITCZ, equatorial trough and
southward.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh trade winds will
occasionally pulse to strong, along with seas at 6 to 9 ft seas 
under the ridge. Meanwhile, the trough in the northern waters 
will dissipate later this evening while shifting east. Moderate 
to fresh N to NE winds and seas at 7 to 10 ft are expected north 
of 20N and east of 125W by Fri. Little change is forecast across 
the remainder of the waters through early next week.

$$

Chan