AXPZ20 KNHC 030854
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Oct 3 2022
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Hurricane Orlene is centered near 22.1N 106.4W at 03/0900 UTC
moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt.
Seas are peaking near 24 ft. Numerous moderate and scattered
strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center of Orlene.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from
19N to 24N between 104W and 108W. A dangerous storm surge is
likely to cause flooding along the coast of mainland Mexico in
the warning area in regions of onshore winds. Heavy rainfall
from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding, as well as
possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of southwest
Mexico through Tuesday. Large swells generated by Orlene are
affecting the west coast of Mexico and will spread northward to
the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula and the
Gulf of California over the next day. These swells will cause
large breaking waves producing life- threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located several hundred
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Satellite imagery also indicates that the surface
circulation has become better defined. If these trends continue,
a tropical depression is likely to form Monday or Monday night
while the system moves slowly northward during the next couple of
days. There is a high probability for tropical cyclone development
in the next couple of days. Please see the latest eastern north
Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 10N97W to 15N112W to
12N122W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
09N to 15N between 90W and 100W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 11N to 16N between 111W and
115W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 17N
between 120W and 126W, and from 08N to 10N between 128W and
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please read the Special Features above for details on Hurricane
Elsewhere, in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, an ongoing gap wind event
is supporting fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft. Gentle to
moderate NW winds prevail over the offshore waters off the Baja
California peninsula. Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of
California as well as the remainder open waters off Mexico. Seas
are in the 4-6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 3 ft
or less over the Gulf of California.
For the forecast, winds will diminish in the entrance of the Gulf
of California and along the Baja offshore waters by Tue morning
as conditions generated by Orlene improve. Otherwise, fresh to
strong winds in the Tehuantepec region will continue through Tue
before diminishing slightly through Thu. Winds will once again
increase to fresh to strong Thu night.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gentle to locally moderate S to SW winds are south of the
monsoon trough while light to gentle NE to E winds are north of
the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range between the
Galapagos and Ecuador, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, gentle winds S of the monsoon trough will
increase slightly through midweek. Moderate to fresh winds will
pulse each night in the Papagayo region starting tonight. SW
swell bringing seas in the 6-8 ft range between the Galapagos
and Ecuador will spread northward through the week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see above for an area of disturbed weather several
hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula with a high chance for tropical cyclone
Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails N of 20N, anchored by 1020 mb
high pressure centered near 29N131W. Light to gentle winds are
in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds are
elsewhere over the discussion waters. Seas are in the 8-10 ft
range in NW swell over the far NW waters, and in the 4-6 ft
range elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Seas of 6-9 ft
prevail south of the monsoon trough.
For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern
waters with little change to the wind speeds. A set of NW swell
supporting seas of 8 ft or greater over the far NW waters will
continue today before starting to subside.