AXPZ20 KNHC 250400
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Oct 25 2020
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
A strong autumn cold front will sweep southeastward across
northern Mexico and the Gulf of California Sun night into Mon,
and bring strong westerly gap winds ahead of the front across
north and central portions of the Gulf Sun afternoon through Mon,
becoming strong northerly winds behind the front, which will
spread southward across the Gulf Mon night and Tue. Gale force
winds are expected over the far northern Gulf of California Mon
morning through Mon night. Near gale force winds will prevail
afterwards through Tue afternoon. Seas will become very rough
over the northern Gulf of California Mon afternoon through late
Mon night, with wave heights possibly reaching 13 or 14 ft before
subsiding to around 8 ft Tue afternoon. Please read the latest
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website-https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more
A tropical wave extends from 07N to 17N with axis near 121W, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are from 14N to 18N
between 111W and 121W.
A tropical wave extends from 06N to 16N with axis near 139W,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. There is no convection associated
with it at this time.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends 11N86W to 10N103W to 10N118W.
The ITCZ begins near 10N123W and continues along 09N130W to
12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 11N E of
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section above for details on an
upcoming gale event in the northern Gulf of California.
Gentle northwest to north winds prevails offshore Baja
California, while gentle north to northeast winds are offshore
mainland Mexico. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range, except for 6-8 ft
seas from north swell present west of Baja California Norte.
Northerly winds over the Gulf of Tehunatepec prevail at 20-30 kt
speeds. However, these gap winds will diminish to 20-25 kt by
late Sun morning or early afternoon, then diminish to moderate
to fresh speeds Sun evening and change little through Mon. Seas
with these winds will build to 10 ft tonight into Sun, then
subside to 8 ft early Sun and to less than 8 ft Sun afternoon.
Winds will remain light to gentle west of Mexico for the next
few days, with little change in seas. The swell west of Baja
California Norte will gradually subside through Sun as the swell
group shifts westward away from the offshore waters.
A strong cold front will move across northern Mexico and the
Gulf of California Sun night into Mon. Related impacts are
described above under the Special Features section.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Mainly moderate south to southwest winds will continue over the
southern waters through Mon, then increase late Mon. Seas south
of Costa Rica and Panama are 5-7 ft in south to southwest swell.
Gentle to moderate onshore flow is expected west of Central America
through Sun night, becoming light and variable on Mon.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Strong high pressure centered well north of the region extends a
broad ridge southward into the discussion area. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated to the
monsoon trough region is allowing for moderate to fresh trades
over an area roughly from 15N to 20N between west of 130W. These
conditions will slowly diminish as they shift westward through