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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300256
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Sep 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0250 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Orlene is centered near 15.6N 106.7W at 30/0300
UTC moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55
kt. Peak seas are currently to 12 ft. Numerous moderate and 
scattered strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere 
from 11N to 18N between 103W and 109W. Orlene is expected to turn 
northwestward and northward within a day or so, with a gradual 
turn north-northeastward until landfall Monday. The system is
forecast to intensify, reaching hurricane intensity Friday. 
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC 
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for 
more details. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between
high pressure across eastern Mexico and the eastern north 
Pacific monsoon trough is supporting gale force winds over the 
Tehuantepec region. Winds will diminish below gale force Friday 
as the area of high pressure weakens. Seas will build to 12 ft 
overnight before diminishing Friday. Please read the latest High 
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 12N91W to 15N99W. It
resumes from 14N110W to 13N127W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 09N east of 85W, and from 10N to
14N between 93W and 100W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 112W and 117W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between
135W and 140W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features above for details on Tropical 
Storm Orlene, and on a Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail over the open
waters off Mexico, with light to gentle winds over the Gulf of
California. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the open waters off
Mexico, and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, other than Tropical Storm Orlene and the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec Gale Warning, mainly gentle to moderate winds will
dominate through Mon and diminish to light to gentle Mon night
into Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough with
light to gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in
the 4-6 ft range. 

For the forecast, winds south of the monsoon trough will 
increase to moderate to fresh speeds on Fri and diminish back to 
moderate speeds on Sat. These winds will further diminish to 
light to gentle on Monday, continuing through Tue. Otherwise, 
seas will build offshore Guatemala by the end of the week due to 
an ongoing gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails north of 20N. The pressure gradient
between the area of high pressure and the monsoon trough is
supporting moderate NE to E winds north of the monsoon trough and
west of 120W. Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail elsewhere.
Seas are in the 6-8 ft range north of the monsoon trough to near
15N and west of 135W. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail over much of the
remainder of the discussion waters.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern
waters with little change to the expected conditions over the
next couple of days.

$$
AL