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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



376 
AXPZ20 KNHC 160843
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0830 UTC Wed Oct 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E is centered near 15.4N
94.9W at 16/0900 UTC moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30
kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seventeen-E is forecast to move inland
over southern Mexico today, and dissipate Thu. This system is 
embedded within the larger circulation of a Central American 
Gyre. A large area of scattered convection associated with this 
system is noted over the forecast waters N of 08N between 88W and
103W. Heavy rainfall associated with this system is expected 
across portions of southern Mexico during the next day or two. 
These rains could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in 
mountainous areas. See latest NHC forecast/ advisory under 
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 115W, from 04N to 18N, 
moving W at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described 
below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 15N95.5W to 12.5N129W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 01N
to 08N E of 80W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
was noted from 10N to 13N between 106W and 123W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Please read the Special Features section for more details about 
the Central American Gyre and Potential Tropical Cyclone
Seventeen-E.

Elsewhere, a ridge will build through the week across the Baja 
California offshore waters producing mainly a moderate NW to N 
wind flow. A set of large NW swell will propagate into the Baja 
California Norte offshore waters by the end of the week with seas
of 8-12 ft, spreading SE and reaching the Revillagigedo Islands
by Sat night and continuing through Sun night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about 
the Central American Gyre and Potential Tropical Cyclone
Seventeen-E.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad and weak ridge is across the waters N of the monsoon 
trough and W of 115W. Earlier scatterometer data shows gentle to 
moderate trades, along with seas of 4-7 ft as indicated by 
altimeter data.

A weak 1009 mb low pressure area is embedded in the monsoon 
trough near 12.5N126W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 08N to 16N between 123W and 128W. An area of fresh to 
locally strong winds and seas to 8 ft are within 90 nm E of the 
low center. This low is forecast to linger in the same general 
area through the week with similar winds and seas in the 
vicinity. 

The latest scatterometer pass indicates that the area of low 
pressure that was near 15N134W has opened up into a trough. The 
pressure gradient between the trough and the broad ridging to 
the N is supporting an area of moderate to fresh winds from 15N
to 20N between 132W and 137W. Seas are in the 7 to 8 ft range
over this area. An area of moderate to fresh winds and seas to 8
ft will remain N of the trough as it shifts westward. The trough
will shift W of the area Thursday, with associated seas 
subsiding below 8 ft late Thu night. 

A cold front will approach near 30N140W tonight. The front will 
usher in a set of long period NW swell, with seas of 8 to 10 ft 
affecting the waters N of 28N W of 130W by Thu morning. This 
swell will continue to propagate SE-S through the end of the 
week, with seas of 8 ft or greater likely covering the waters N 
of 20N W of 110W, and from 10N to 20N W of 115W by Sat. The swell
will slowly decay from NW to SE by the end of the upcoming 
weekend.

$$
AL