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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010302
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jun 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Heavy rainfall in Central America and Southern Mexico...

A Central American Gyre is centered over northern Central America
and southern Mexico, with the broad cyclonic circulation around 
the gyre encompassing the discussion waters N of the equator and 
E of 100W, and extending across adjacent portions of the southern
Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea. Moderate to strong
winds are noted across much of these eastern Pacific waters, 
with seas in the 6-10 ft range. Numerous moderate and scattered 
strong convection is noted across much of these waters N of 10N
between the Gulf of Tehuantepec and 80W. Areas of thunderstorms 
continue to impact portions of Central America from Nicaragua 
northwestward to the Bay of Campeche. The low level circulation 
of Tropical Storm Amanda has dissipated over Guatemala today, but
the focused area of circulation within the larger Central 
American Gyre has led to torrential rainfall over portions of 
Guatemala and El Salvador over the past 12 to 24 hours, where
clusters of heavy rainfall continue.

Winds around the gyre will continue to advect abundant moisture 
into portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico for the 
next several days. This will maintain a dangerous situation for 
these areas. Heavy rainfall has already impacted portions of 
Guatemala, Belize, El Salvador, western Honduras, western 
Nicaragua, and portions of southern Mexico E of Veracruz and 
eastern Oaxaca. A continued period of active and wet weather, 
with periods of heavy rainfall, is expected over these areas the 
next several days. The continued heavy rainfall will exacerbate 
the current situation, with the potential for life-threatening 
flash floods and mudslides for locations that receive the 
heaviest rainfall, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. 
Please refer to products issued by your local weather service for
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from the low pressure remnants of
Amanda near 16N90W to 13N93W to low pres near 07N120W to low pres
near 09N131W TO 08N140W.. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted N of 05.5N between 81.5W and 87W and 07N to 
10 between 87W and 98W. Scattered to numerous moderate scattered 
strong convection is noted N of 10N between 87W and 96W and from 
07N to 11N between 98W and 104W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is also noted from 06N to 09N between 104W and 
135W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is also noted from 
06N to 10N W of 136W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more details on the 
Central American Gyre.

The circulation around the Central American Gyre is funneling
winds through the Chivela pass across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
This is producing gap winds to around 25 kt across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Winds over the Tehuantepec region will gradually 
diminish below 25 kt by early Monday. 

Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds prevail across the open waters
off Mexico. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the open waters 
off Mexico, and in the 1-3 ft range over the Gulf of California.

The Central American Gyre is centered over the northern portion 
of Central America and southern Mexico. This feature is bringing 
active weather over the southern Mexico offshore waters, which 
will continue through the upcoming week. Strong winds over the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec will persist through tonight. Elsewhere, high
pressure will build over the northern waters. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see the Special Features section for more details on the 
Central American Gyre.

Outside of winds and seas associated to the Central American 
Gyre, moderate to fresh winds prevail N of 02N, and gentle to 
moderate winds S of 02N. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range across the
area.

The Central American Gyre is centered over the northern portion 
of Central America and southern Mexico. This feature is bringing 
active weather over the offshore waters of Central America, which
will continue through the upcoming week. Elsewhere, long-period 
SW swell will continue propagating across the region through 
early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails across the northeastern waters. The 
pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and low 
pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to 
locally fresh winds N of the monsoon trough to near 15N and W of 
120W. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon 
trough. Moderate to fresh southerly winds prevail S of the 
monsoon trough between 103W and 121W, where seas are 7-8 ft. 
Light to gentle southerly winds prevail elsewhere W of 121W. Seas
over the discussion area are in the 5-7 ft range.

High pressure will weaken slightly through Mon. A surface low 
is drifting into the far NW portion of the discussion waters 
where it will weaken by Tuesday and dissipate by Wed. High pres 
will then build it its wake. 

$$
Stripling