AXPZ20 KNHC 021603
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Oct 2 2022
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Hurricane Orlene is centered near 19.6N 106.9W at 02/1500 UTC
moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt.
Peak seas are near 22 ft. Numerous strong convection is noted
from 17N to 23N between 105W and 109W. On the forecast track,
the center of Orlene should pass near or over Las Islas Marias
tonight or Monday morning, and reach the coast of mainland Mexico
within the warning area later on Monday or Monday night. Orlene
is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Weakening is expected during the next day or so, however
Orlene is forecast to be a strong hurricane when it passes near
or over the Islas Marias, and remain a hurricane when it reaches
southwestern Mexico. Large swells generated by Orlene are
affecting the west coast of Mexico and will spread northward to
the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula and the
Gulf of California over the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal
flooding along the coast of mainland Mexico in the warning area in
regions of onshore winds. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continue to show signs
of gradual organization. Additional development of this system is
possible, and a tropical depression could form during the next
couple of days as it moves slowly northeastward or northward.
There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone development. Please
see the latest eastern north Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more information.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N84W to 11N92W to
08N97W to 10N102W then resumes from a 1008 mb low near 15N112W
to 12N130W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 06N to 14N between 90W and 101W, and from 08N to 16N between
106W and 126W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please read the Special Features above for details on Hurricane
In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, an ongoing gap wind event is
supporting fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft. Gentle to
moderate NW winds prevail over the waters west of the Baja
California peninsula. Light to gentle winds are over the Gulf of
California as well as the remainder of the open waters off
SW Mexico. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the open waters off
Mexico, and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California.
For the forecast, outside of Hurricane Orlene, fresh to strong
winds in the Tehuantepec region will continue through Tue then
diminish to moderate to fresh speeds Tue night into Thu.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough
while gentle NE to E winds are north of the monsoon trough. Seas
are in the 4-6 ft range in southerly swell.
For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will diminish
slightly Sun evening, then increase once again through the middle
of next week. Seas in the 4-6 ft range will increase to 6-8 ft
over the southern waters early this week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see above for an area of disturbed weather several
hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula with a medium chance for tropical cyclone
Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails N of 20N and W of 120W.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail north of the monsoon trough with
moderate to locally fresh winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas
are in the 5-7 ft range north of the monsoon trough and 6-8 ft
south of the monsoon trough.
For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern
waters with little change to the wind speeds. A set of NW swell
will impact the far NW waters, bringing seas of 8 ft or greater
through early next week before subsiding.