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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 280709

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun May 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N106W to 06N126W. 
The ITCZ continues from 06N126W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate 
to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 12N between 
88W and 119W. Scattered moderate convection has also developed E
of 80W. 


Moderate NW winds prevail W of the Baja Peninsula with locally
fresh winds just S of Cabo San Lucas. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in N to
NW swell. Fresh N winds and seas of 8 ft are diminishing in the
Gulf of Tehunatepec. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are noted 
in the Gulf of California with slight seas. Light to gentle winds
also prevail across the offshore waters of southwest Mexico with
moderate seas. No significant convection is occurring in the 
Mexico offshore waters at this time. 

For the forecast, the gradient between subtropical high pressure
in the Pacific and a surface trough near the Gulf of California 
will persist through early week. Winds are expected to pulse to 
fresh during the overnight and early morning hours west of the 
Baja Peninsula during this time. Fresh S to SW gap winds will 
occur in the northern Gulf of California each night through the 
forecast period. Seas will become 4-6 ft across the offshore 
waters by Monday across most of the Mexico offshore waters, then 
continue through most of the week. 


Across the offshore waters of Central America, winds are light 
to gentle. South of the monsoon trough, southerly gentle to
moderate winds are noted. Seas are now in the 8-11 ft range 
between the equator and 02N from southern hemisphere swell, 
except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. Seas are in the 7-10 
ft range offshore Central America. Scattered thunderstorms are 
noted in the offshores of Panama and Colombia. 

For the forecast, long-period S to SW swell will continue from 
the southern hemisphere with seas to 11 ft. The higher amounts of
swell will not reach the lee of the Galapagos Islands to 
Nicaragua due to it being blocked. Seas will subside throughout 
the area into tonight. Otherwise, light to gentle winds prevail 
north of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate SW monsoon 
winds expected in the South American offshore zones. 


High pressure of 1030 mb located northwest of the area near 
39N148W extends a ridge over the eastern Pacific. The associated
pressure gradient is supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic 
flow across the majority of the area. Gentle to locally moderate 
southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to the 
Equator. Seas range 4-7 ft across most of the waters.

For the forecast, no major changes are expected. The ridge will 
continue to dominate the region north of 10N and west of 110W 
through early week. Mainly moderate NE trade winds will persist 
across the southern periphery of the ridge, especially west of 
120W. Long- period S to SW swell in the eastern tropical Atlantic
will gradually subside below 8 ft tonight.