AXPZ20 KNHC 280709
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun May 28 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N106W to 06N126W.
The ITCZ continues from 06N126W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 12N between
88W and 119W. Scattered moderate convection has also developed E
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Moderate NW winds prevail W of the Baja Peninsula with locally
fresh winds just S of Cabo San Lucas. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in N to
NW swell. Fresh N winds and seas of 8 ft are diminishing in the
Gulf of Tehunatepec. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are noted
in the Gulf of California with slight seas. Light to gentle winds
also prevail across the offshore waters of southwest Mexico with
moderate seas. No significant convection is occurring in the
Mexico offshore waters at this time.
For the forecast, the gradient between subtropical high pressure
in the Pacific and a surface trough near the Gulf of California
will persist through early week. Winds are expected to pulse to
fresh during the overnight and early morning hours west of the
Baja Peninsula during this time. Fresh S to SW gap winds will
occur in the northern Gulf of California each night through the
forecast period. Seas will become 4-6 ft across the offshore
waters by Monday across most of the Mexico offshore waters, then
continue through most of the week.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Across the offshore waters of Central America, winds are light
to gentle. South of the monsoon trough, southerly gentle to
moderate winds are noted. Seas are now in the 8-11 ft range
between the equator and 02N from southern hemisphere swell,
except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. Seas are in the 7-10
ft range offshore Central America. Scattered thunderstorms are
noted in the offshores of Panama and Colombia.
For the forecast, long-period S to SW swell will continue from
the southern hemisphere with seas to 11 ft. The higher amounts of
swell will not reach the lee of the Galapagos Islands to
Nicaragua due to it being blocked. Seas will subside throughout
the area into tonight. Otherwise, light to gentle winds prevail
north of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate SW monsoon
winds expected in the South American offshore zones.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure of 1030 mb located northwest of the area near
39N148W extends a ridge over the eastern Pacific. The associated
pressure gradient is supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic
flow across the majority of the area. Gentle to locally moderate
southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to the
Equator. Seas range 4-7 ft across most of the waters.
For the forecast, no major changes are expected. The ridge will
continue to dominate the region north of 10N and west of 110W
through early week. Mainly moderate NE trade winds will persist
across the southern periphery of the ridge, especially west of
120W. Long- period S to SW swell in the eastern tropical Atlantic
will gradually subside below 8 ft tonight.