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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011603
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Aug 1 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Warning: Hurricane Hilda is centered near 14.6N 120.2W
at 01/1500 UTC moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with 
gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are near 28 ft. Numerous moderate to 
strong convection is noted from 11N to 16N between 118W and 122W.
Hilda is expected to continue moving WNW early this week, before
making a turn to the NW. Additional strengthen is expected today,
and Hilda is expected to become a Category 2 hurricane. By Mon, a
weakening trend should begin. Peak seas of 25 to 30 ft will 
prevail into Mon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for 
more details.

Tropical Depression Nine-E has become post-tropical. Post-
Tropical Cyclone Nine-E is centered near 11.4N 127.5W at 01/0900
UTC, drifting north. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt.
Peak seas are near 9 ft. Convection previously associated with
Nine-E has diminished overnight. Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine-E is
not expected to strengthen anymore as it moves slowly west early
this week. Some strong winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are possible
in its path. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for 
more details.

Showers and a few thunderstorms persist near the 1008 mb low 
pressure system located near about 350 miles southwest of 
Manzanillo, Mexico.  The low is likely to become a tropical 
depression during the next day or so 
while continuing to move WNW at 10 kt, away from the coast of 
Mexico. Development is not likely by late Monday once the system 
begins moving over cooler waters. There is a high chance of 
tropical formation in the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is noted along 93W, extending from 05N N into 
Southern Mexico, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection has developed from 05N to 14N between 88W to 95W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 
09N77W to the 1008 mb low pressure near 05N78W, then it 
continues west to 08N99W to a second 1008 mb low pressure near 
16N109W, described in the Special Features Section above, then 
the monsoon trough ends near 15N113W. The monsoon trough resumes 
near 13N123W to a third 1008 mb low near 12N127W, remnants of TD 
Nine-E, and continues to 09N131W. Convection in the vicinity of 
the monsoon trough is primarily associated with features 
described in the Special Features and Tropical Wave sections 
above, except scattered moderate convection from 03N to 11N 
between 94W to 105W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See Special Features section above for information on low 
pressure well south of southern Mexico that has a high chance of 
tropical formation in the next 48 hours.

Surface ridging extends from a 1031 mb high near 38N148W 
southeastward to 17N124W. NE to N winds over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec are fresh. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker 
across the Mexican offshores and the Gulf of California. Seas are
4-6 ft across the Mexican offshores and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of 
California.

For the forecast, high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and 
lower pressure farther to the south will support fresh to perhaps
locally strong pulses of N gap winds across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec today. Low pressure well SW of Manzanillo, Mexico is 
likely to become a tropical depression today or Monday as it 
moves WNW. This could be strong winds and higher seas to waters 
well offshore Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, as well as near the
Revillagigedo Islands.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE to E gap winds are occurring in the Papagayo region 
with winds moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft across 
the Central American and equatorial offshore zones.

For the forecast, fresh NE to E gap winds will continue today 
over the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, quiescent winds should 
prevail into late week. SW swell will build combined seas to 6-8 
ft over the equatorial waters before relaxing on Mon. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features section above for details on newly-
upgraded Hurricane Hilda and Tropical Depression Nine-E.

Surface ridging extends from a 1031 mb high near 38N148W 
southeastward to 17N124W. NE trades south of the ridge and north
of the monsoon trough are generally moderate or weaker, except 
in the vicinity of the post-tropical cyclone TD Nine-E and 
Hurricane Hilda with fresh winds. South of the monsoon trough S 
to SW winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are generally 4-6 ft, 
except for seas 6-8 ft south of the equator and east of 120W due 
to SW swell. Winds and seas over some sections of the area will 
be impacted by the two tropical cyclones detailed in the Special 
Features during the next several days. $$ Torres