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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281556
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Mar 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: 
Gale force winds and seas of 9 to 13 ft are currently occurring
at the Gulf of Tehunatepec. These marine conditions are forecast
to persist tonight and Fri morning, with seas building to 10 to
14 ft by tonight. Swell generated by this gap wind event will 
spread southwestward, creating 8 to 11 ft seas as far west as 
100W and as far south as 09N on Fri morning. Both winds and seas 
should begin to diminish late Fri afternoon.

Marine interests in the Tehuantepec area, especially local 
fishermen need to take necessary action to avoid these hazardous
marine conditions.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more detail.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

An equatorial trough extends from a 1013 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia to 07N100W to the Equator at 120W. The ITCZ 
is south of the Equator and runs westward from 01S110W to 
03S125W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N
between 88W and 120W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 02N to 06N W of 130W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please, 
read the Special Features section for more details.

A broad surface ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast  
waters of Baja California with gentle to moderate northerly 
winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft. For the Gulf of California, moderate
to fresh NW winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are present across central 
and southern gulf, while light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3
ft exist at the northern gulf. Other than the Gale Warning area 
in the Tehuantepec region, light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to
6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the southern Mexico 
offshore waters.

For the forecast, gale conditions and rough to very rough seas
will persist in the Tehuantepec region through Fri morning.  
A strong cold front is forecast to enter the offshore waters of 
Baja California and northern Gulf of California on Sat, bringing 
with it increasing winds and large NW swell. This swell could 
generate high seas at the outer offshore waters north of Punta 
Eugenia by Sun morning.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moist, convergent SW to W winds are triggering widely scattered 
showers and a few thunderstorms south of the Galapagos Islands,
and off central Costa Rica. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional weather in the region. Otherwise, gentle 
with locally moderate S to SW winds and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail 
across the offshore waters of Ecuador, Colombia, Panama, Costa
Rica and the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds and seas 
at 2 to 4 ft are found offshore of Guatemala, El Salvador and 
Nicaragua.

For the forecast, convergent southwesterly winds along with 
abundant moisture will continue to support sporadic showers and 
thunderstorms near the Galapagos Islands and in the Costa Rica 
and Panama offshore waters through at least Fri. Winds and seas 
could be higher near thunderstorms. Otherwise, light to gentle 
winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the entire 
region through Thu night. Starting Fri, increasing gap winds and 
rising seas will occur in the Papagayo area, and Gulf of Panama 
as high pressure builds north of the area. Also on Fri, swell 
generated by gap winds at the Tehuantepec region will cause rough
seas across the far southwestern offshore waters of Guatemala 
and El Salvador. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters while a weakening
cold front extends from 30N130W to 27N140W generating some shower
activity. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower 
pressures near the equatorial trough/ITCZ maintains moderate to 
fresh trades along with 7 to 9 ft seas from 07N to 20N west of 
125W, confirmed by the most recent scatterometer data. Gentle to 
moderate anticyclonic flow along with 5 to 7 ft seas are evident 
across most of the waters north of 20N and W of 120W. Gentle with
locally moderate NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft exist north of 
the equatorial trough between 100W and 120W. Mostly gentle ENE to
SE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for
the remainder of the Pacific waters.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will linger across the waters
west of Baja California as the weakening front moves southeastward
across waters north of 20N. This will allow trade winds from 07N
to 20N west of 125W to diminish. Residual NW swell will still 
big enough to keep 7 to 9 ft seas in this area until this 
evening. A strong cold front will enter the Pacific waters west 
of Baja California Norte on Fri, followed by fresh to strong 
northerly winds and large seas. 

$$
GR