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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281533
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Nov 28 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
high pressure over eastern Mexico and lower pressure south of 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec within and near the monsoon trough will 
induce north to northeast gale-force winds across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec starting tonight. These conditions winds will 
continue through Mon night. Seas will peak to near 11 ft 
with the strongest winds. Please see the latest NWS High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northwestern Colombia to 07N78W 
to 11N123W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 09N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the ITCZ 
between 130W-140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
next gale-force northerly gap wind event expected in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec beginning tonight.

Elsewhere, light and variable winds prevail over the Gulf of
California. An area of fresh northwest to north winds are over 
the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Mazatlan. Seas are 4-5 ft
offshore of the Baja California Peninsula mainly due to a 
northwest swell, and 4-6 ft elsewhere west of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec area.

For the forecast, gale-force north to northeast winds will begin
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight and continue through late Mon
night. Moderate to fresh northwest to north winds will develop 
near Cabo Corrientes tonight through late Mon night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh northeast winds prevail over and downstream 
the Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north 
of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds continue south 
of the monsoon trough. Seas across the area are in the 3-5 ft 
range due to a south to southwest swell across the offshore 
waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast winds in the 
Papagayo region will continue through the period. Gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the next few days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the northern waters. The pressure 
gradient between this high pressure and lower pressures in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh northeast to
east trades north of the ITCZ to near 22N and west of about 
116W. Seas are 6-8 ft across this area. Water vapor imagery 
depicts a mid to upper-level trough that extends from northern 
Baja California to 20N119W and to near 10N121W. A weak mid-level 
low is noted near 20N118W. At the surface, a trough extends from 
22N113W to 16N114W. Upper divergence present east of these 
features is helping to sustain an area of scattered showers and 
thunderstorms from 16N to 25N between 110W-115W. Gentle to 
moderate northeast to east trades are elsewhere over the 
discussion waters as noted in latest ASCAT data passes. Seas of 
mainly 4-6 ft are elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will weaken some through
late this afternoon as a front approaches the far northwest 
corner of the area. This will allow for the aforementioned fresh 
winds to diminish in coverage. The 6-8 ft seas will subside 
slightly to 5-7 ft. Mainly gentle to moderate east trades will 
continue elsewhere through early next week, except for pockets of
fresh trades west of about 130W. After today, the seas of 5-7 ft
will continue through early next week over the majority of the 
area, with the exception of the far western waters north of 15N 
and west of about 135W, where a set of northwest swell will
bring seas of 8-9 ft to those waters.

$$
ERA