AXPZ20 KNHC 281533
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Nov 28 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between
high pressure over eastern Mexico and lower pressure south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec within and near the monsoon trough will
induce north to northeast gale-force winds across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec starting tonight. These conditions winds will
continue through Mon night. Seas will peak to near 11 ft
with the strongest winds. Please see the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from northwestern Colombia to 07N78W
to 11N123W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 09N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the ITCZ
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
next gale-force northerly gap wind event expected in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec beginning tonight.
Elsewhere, light and variable winds prevail over the Gulf of
California. An area of fresh northwest to north winds are over
the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Mazatlan. Seas are 4-5 ft
offshore of the Baja California Peninsula mainly due to a
northwest swell, and 4-6 ft elsewhere west of the Gulf of
For the forecast, gale-force north to northeast winds will begin
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight and continue through late Mon
night. Moderate to fresh northwest to north winds will develop
near Cabo Corrientes tonight through late Mon night.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR
Moderate to fresh northeast winds prevail over and downstream
the Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north
of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds continue south
of the monsoon trough. Seas across the area are in the 3-5 ft
range due to a south to southwest swell across the offshore
For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast winds in the
Papagayo region will continue through the period. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the next few days.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure prevails over the northern waters. The pressure
gradient between this high pressure and lower pressures in the
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh northeast to
east trades north of the ITCZ to near 22N and west of about
116W. Seas are 6-8 ft across this area. Water vapor imagery
depicts a mid to upper-level trough that extends from northern
Baja California to 20N119W and to near 10N121W. A weak mid-level
low is noted near 20N118W. At the surface, a trough extends from
22N113W to 16N114W. Upper divergence present east of these
features is helping to sustain an area of scattered showers and
thunderstorms from 16N to 25N between 110W-115W. Gentle to
moderate northeast to east trades are elsewhere over the
discussion waters as noted in latest ASCAT data passes. Seas of
mainly 4-6 ft are elsewhere.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient will weaken some through
late this afternoon as a front approaches the far northwest
corner of the area. This will allow for the aforementioned fresh
winds to diminish in coverage. The 6-8 ft seas will subside
slightly to 5-7 ft. Mainly gentle to moderate east trades will
continue elsewhere through early next week, except for pockets of
fresh trades west of about 130W. After today, the seas of 5-7 ft
will continue through early next week over the majority of the
area, with the exception of the far western waters north of 15N
and west of about 135W, where a set of northwest swell will
bring seas of 8-9 ft to those waters.