AXPZ20 KNHC 290231
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Nov 29 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure has built across
the eastern slopes of Mexico in the wake of a frontal boundary
over the southern Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between
this area of high pressure and the eastern north Pacific monsoon
trough is supporting minimal gale conditions over Tehuantepec
this afternoon, with peak seas currently near 12 ft. Strong to
near gale-force winds will persist through Wed, with gale-force
winds expected through early Wed. Please read the latest HIGH
SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N94W to 09N108W. The
ITCZ continues from 09N108W to 10N120W to 09N140W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted from 01N to 08N E of 89W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 16N between
100W and 112W, and from 06N to 10N between 112W and 140W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see above for more on the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec
gale-force gap wind event. Strong N to NE winds currently extend
downwind of Tehuantepec to near 13N, with seas 8 to 12 ft in
Elsewhere, moderate N-NW winds are noted over the southern Gulf
of California, with gentle winds over the northern Gulf. Seas
are 2 to 4 ft through the basin. Light to gentle winds prevail
elsewhere across the Baja California offshore waters N of 22N,
becoming moderate winds S of 22N over the outer portion of the
offshore zones off southern and SW Mexico, extending south and
west of the Revillagigedo Islands. NW swell continues to subside
across the Baja waters, where seas are in the 6-8 ft, except 8
to 9 ft from 21N to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas of 5-7 ft
prevail elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
across the eastern slopes of Mexico and the eastern north Pacific
monsoon trough will support strong to near-gale force gap winds
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed evening, with current
gale-force winds expected to continue over these waters through
early Wed. Large NW swell moving through the waters west of Baja
California to the Revillagigedo Islands will continue to subside
tonight. High pressure will begin to build across the region from
the NW on Wed to bring a return to moderate to locally fresh NW
winds across the Baja offshore waters late Wed through the end of
the week. Strong westerly gap winds are expected across the Gulf
of California Wed afternoon and night.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong NE gap winds are over the Papagayo region, with
the fresh winds extending to near 90W. Light to gentle offshore
winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to
locally fresh southerly winds are noted between Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are over
the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere S of
the monsoon trough. Seas of 4-6 ft in SW swell prevail across the
area waters, except 6-7 ft in the Papagayo region. A cluster of
strong thunderstorms persists across the near and offshore
waters south of Panama and eastern Costa Rica, and are currently
E of 88W.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected across
and well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region through Wed
night, pulsing to strong speeds at night. Moderate to locally
fresh S to SW winds will continue between Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands tonight through midday Wed before diminishing.
Moderate W to NW swell entering the regional waters this
afternoon will continue through Thu. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms are expected to persist across the near and
offshore waters of Panama and Costa Rica through Wed.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Weak high pressure prevails across the northern waters, to the
southeast of a weakening cold front that extends from 30N128W to
29N134W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure
and the remnant trough of Ramon near 22N128W to 13N129W, as well
as the monsoon trough and ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally
fresh winds N of the the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 24N and west of
110W. Light to gentle winds are N of 24N. Gentle N winds are N
of the cold front. Gentle to moderate winds are found S of the
monsoon trough/ITCZ. NW swell dominates the discussion waters W
of 110W, with seas in the 8-11 ft range. Seas of 6-8 ft are noted
For the forecast, the NW swell will continue to subside slowly,
with seas greater than 8 ft covering much of the waters west of
110W through tonight before subsiding more quickly Wed. High
pressure to the northwest will begin to build across the region
by Thu and freshen NE to E winds south of 25N into the weekend.
Associated seas are expected to build to 8-10 ft and potentially
higher to the S of 25N Fri night into Sat.