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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



790 
AXPZ20 KNHC 062146
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jul 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Five-E is centered near 10.5N 99.7W at
06/2100 UTC moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated to scattered
strong convection is noted within 270 nm of the center. Five-E is
forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm late tonight, and then
to a hurricane by Wed afternoon while moving W-NW near or just
beyond the 250 nm offshore waters boundary. Associated increasing
winds and seas are likely to propagate into the offshore waters
along with squalls and thunderstorm activity.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 99W from southern Mexico to 05N, moving
W-NW at 10 kt. Tropical Depression Five-E has developed along
this wave near 10.5N. Associated convection is described above.

A tropical wave is along 111W from 05N to 18N, moving W at around
10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
from 09N to 17N between 109W and 112W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends from 1010 mb low pressure near 
09N76W to 11N88W to Tropical Depression Five-E near 10.5N99.7W to
low pressure near 15.5N117W to low pressure near 12N124.5W to
10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 05N to 10N between 84W and 90W, from 07N to 12N
between 90W and 94W, from 12N to 15N between 113W and 117W,
within 180 nm in the SW semicircle of the low near 12N124.5W,
from 07N to 11N between 132W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on 
Tropical Depression Five-E. While the strongest winds and seas
with Five-E are forecast to remain away from the coast of Mexico,
a swath of fresh to strong E-SE winds will propagate from just W
of the Tehuantepec region tonight to just S of Cabo Corrientes by
early Wed due to funneling between the system and the mountainous
terrain inland.

Otherwise, a ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters from
21.5N116W to 16N102W. Afternoon scatterometer data shows gentle
to moderate winds across the basin, along with 4-7 ft seas in
mixed swell, except 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California.

A gale event N of the area W of San Francisco Bay will send fresh
northerly swell into the waters N of Punta Eugenia tonight, 
building seas to 8-9 ft. This swell event will propagate across 
the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through Wed with seas of 5-7 ft.
Expect pulsing fresh to locally strong southerly winds over the 
northern Gulf of California tonight through Wed as the pressure 
gradient tightens across the area between the ridge and lower 
pressures over the lower Colorado River Valley. Mainly gentle to 
moderate southerly winds are expected elsewhere across the Gulf 
of California.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are expected in and downstream of 
the Gulf of Papagayo during the next several days. Moderate to 
occasionally fresh SW winds will prevail over the waters S of 
09N-10N E of 100W. Seas of 7-9 ft will persist over the offshore 
waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through early Tue in a mix of
E-SE wind waves and swells generated from Tropical Depression 
Five-E well W-SW of the area. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on 
Tropical Depression Five-E.

A surface ridge dominates the waters N of 20N. A pair of 1008 mb
low pressure areas are embedded in the monsoon trough, one near 
15.5N117W and the other near 12N124.5W. Disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms as are described above accompany both lows, however
the eastern low is weakening and is expected to merge with the 
low to the W in the next couple of days. An area of fresh to 
strong winds and 8-9 ft seas will accompany the western low, 
mainly on the southern side, as it moves little if not off to the
NE. Some gradually development of the western low is possible
during the next several days.

Long period cross-equatorial S to SW swell dominates most of the
forecast area. This will gradually subside over the next couple 
of days. 

A gale event N of the area W of San Francisco Bay will send fresh
northerly swell into the waters S of 30N tonight through mid-
week, building seas to 8-10 ft N of 22N between roughly 120W and 
135W.

$$
Lewitsky