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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 282132

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Nov 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.


Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure has built across
the eastern slopes of Mexico in the wake of a frontal boundary 
over the southern Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between 
this area of high pressure and the eastern north Pacific monsoon 
trough is supporting minimal gale conditions over Tehuantepec
this afternoon, with peak seas currently near 12 ft. Strong to 
near gale-force winds will persist through Wed, with gale-force 
winds expected through early Wed. Seas will peak around 13 ft 
this evening through tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website for more details.


The monsoon trough extends from 07.5N76W to 08.5N83W to 07N98W 
to 11N112W to low pressure 1011 mb near 09.5N122.5W TO 07.5N126W.
The ITCZ continues from 07.5N126W to beyond 08.5N140W. Numerous 
moderate to strong convection is noted from 02.5N to 07.5N E of 
86W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from
04N to 15N between 87W and 117W, and from 05N to 09.5N between 
118W and 140W.


Please see above for more on the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec 
gale-force gap wind event. Strong N to NE winds currently extend
downwind of Tehuantepec to near 13N, with seas 8 to 12 ft in 
this area.

Elsewhere, moderate N-NW winds are noted over the northern and
southern Gulf of California. Seas are 2 to 4 ft through the 
basin. Light to gentle northerly winds prevail elsewhere across 
the Baja California offshore waters N of 22N, becoming moderate 
NE winds S of 22N over the outer portion of the offshore zones 
off southern and SW Mexico, extending south and west of the 
Revillagigedo Islands. NW swell is beginning to subside across 
the Baja waters, where seas are in the 6-8 ft, except 8 to 10 ft
from 21N to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail 
elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Active showers and
thunderstorms continue offshore of SW Mexico from western
Guerrero to Colima.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec
region will continue to support strong to near-gale force gap 
winds over and downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through
Wed evening, with winds to gale-force expected over these waters
through early Wed. Large NW swell over the waters west of Baja 
California, and SW to the Revillagigedo Islands, continue to  
subside today. High pressure will begin to build across the 
region from the NW on Wed to bring a return to moderate to 
locally fresh NW winds across the Baja offshore waters Wed
afternoon through the end of the week. As this occurs, strong
westerly gap winds are expected to spill into the Gulf of
California Wed afternoon and night.


Fresh to strong NE gap winds are over the Papagayo region this
afternoon, extending northward across the southern offshore 
waters of Nicaragua. Fresh winds there extend downwind of 
Papagayo to near 90W. Light to gentle offshore winds are 
elsewhere north of 12N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly 
winds are noted between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Gentle
to moderate northerly winds are over the Gulf of Panama. Light 
to gentle winds prevail elsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Seas 
of 4-6 ft in SW swell prevail across the area waters, except 6-7
ft in the Papagayo region. A cluster of strong thunderstorms has
persisted all day across the near and offshore waters south of
Panama and eastern Costa Rica, and are currently E of 87W. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected across 
and well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region through Wed 
night, pulsing to strong speeds each night. Moderate to locally 
fresh S to SW winds will continue between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands tonight through midday Wed before diminishing.
Moderate W to NW swell is entering the regional waters this
afternoon and will continue through Thu. Active convection is
expected to persist across the near and offshore waters of Panama
and Costa Rica through Wed.


Weak high pressure prevails across the northern waters, to the
southeast of a weakening cold front that extends from 32N128W to
29N138W. The pressure gradient to the south is yielding moderate
to locally fresh trade winds between the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 
22N and west of 110W. Light to gentle winds are N of 22N. Gentle
NW to W winds follow the cold front across the NW portion. Gentle
to moderate winds are found S of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. NW 
swell dominates the discussion waters W of 110W, with seas in the
8-11 ft range. Seas of 6-8 ft are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the NW swell will continue to subside slowly, 
with seas greater than 8 ft covering much of the waters west of 
110W through tonight before subsiding more quickly Wed. High 
pressure to the northwest will begin to build across the region 
by Thu and freshen NE to E winds south of 25N into the weekend. 
Associated seas are expected to build to 8-10 ft and potentially
higher to the S of 25N Fri night into Sat.