AXPZ20 KNHC 282132
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Nov 28 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure has built across
the eastern slopes of Mexico in the wake of a frontal boundary
over the southern Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between
this area of high pressure and the eastern north Pacific monsoon
trough is supporting minimal gale conditions over Tehuantepec
this afternoon, with peak seas currently near 12 ft. Strong to
near gale-force winds will persist through Wed, with gale-force
winds expected through early Wed. Seas will peak around 13 ft
this evening through tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 07.5N76W to 08.5N83W to 07N98W
to 11N112W to low pressure 1011 mb near 09.5N122.5W TO 07.5N126W.
The ITCZ continues from 07.5N126W to beyond 08.5N140W. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is noted from 02.5N to 07.5N E of
86W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from
04N to 15N between 87W and 117W, and from 05N to 09.5N between
118W and 140W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see above for more on the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec
gale-force gap wind event. Strong N to NE winds currently extend
downwind of Tehuantepec to near 13N, with seas 8 to 12 ft in
Elsewhere, moderate N-NW winds are noted over the northern and
southern Gulf of California. Seas are 2 to 4 ft through the
basin. Light to gentle northerly winds prevail elsewhere across
the Baja California offshore waters N of 22N, becoming moderate
NE winds S of 22N over the outer portion of the offshore zones
off southern and SW Mexico, extending south and west of the
Revillagigedo Islands. NW swell is beginning to subside across
the Baja waters, where seas are in the 6-8 ft, except 8 to 10 ft
from 21N to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail
elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Active showers and
thunderstorms continue offshore of SW Mexico from western
Guerrero to Colima.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec
region will continue to support strong to near-gale force gap
winds over and downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through
Wed evening, with winds to gale-force expected over these waters
through early Wed. Large NW swell over the waters west of Baja
California, and SW to the Revillagigedo Islands, continue to
subside today. High pressure will begin to build across the
region from the NW on Wed to bring a return to moderate to
locally fresh NW winds across the Baja offshore waters Wed
afternoon through the end of the week. As this occurs, strong
westerly gap winds are expected to spill into the Gulf of
California Wed afternoon and night.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong NE gap winds are over the Papagayo region this
afternoon, extending northward across the southern offshore
waters of Nicaragua. Fresh winds there extend downwind of
Papagayo to near 90W. Light to gentle offshore winds are
elsewhere north of 12N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly
winds are noted between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Gentle
to moderate northerly winds are over the Gulf of Panama. Light
to gentle winds prevail elsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Seas
of 4-6 ft in SW swell prevail across the area waters, except 6-7
ft in the Papagayo region. A cluster of strong thunderstorms has
persisted all day across the near and offshore waters south of
Panama and eastern Costa Rica, and are currently E of 87W.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected across
and well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region through Wed
night, pulsing to strong speeds each night. Moderate to locally
fresh S to SW winds will continue between Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands tonight through midday Wed before diminishing.
Moderate W to NW swell is entering the regional waters this
afternoon and will continue through Thu. Active convection is
expected to persist across the near and offshore waters of Panama
and Costa Rica through Wed.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Weak high pressure prevails across the northern waters, to the
southeast of a weakening cold front that extends from 32N128W to
29N138W. The pressure gradient to the south is yielding moderate
to locally fresh trade winds between the monsoon trough/ITCZ to
22N and west of 110W. Light to gentle winds are N of 22N. Gentle
NW to W winds follow the cold front across the NW portion. Gentle
to moderate winds are found S of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. NW
swell dominates the discussion waters W of 110W, with seas in the
8-11 ft range. Seas of 6-8 ft are noted elsewhere.
For the forecast, the NW swell will continue to subside slowly,
with seas greater than 8 ft covering much of the waters west of
110W through tonight before subsiding more quickly Wed. High
pressure to the northwest will begin to build across the region
by Thu and freshen NE to E winds south of 25N into the weekend.
Associated seas are expected to build to 8-10 ft and potentially
higher to the S of 25N Fri night into Sat.