AXPZ20 KNHC 290229
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Sep 29 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
A tropical wave is along 93W north of 07N to across far SE Mexico
just E of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moving west at around 10 kt.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N
to 11N between 89W and 96W.
A tropical wave is analyzed along 137W/138W from 02N to 17N,
moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 05N to 16N between 132W and 140W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N75W to 10N110W. The ITCZ
extends from 10N110W to 10N131W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 101W and 113W,
and from 05N to 14N between 116W and 132W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Surface ridging extends across the offshore waters of Mexico with
a surface trough along the Baja California Peninsula. Fresh to
strong N winds are noted in the immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 7-10 ft in NW
swell offshore Baja California, and 4-6 ft elsewhere in the open
waters. In the Gulf of California, seas are 1-3 ft except 3-4 ft
near the entrance. A tropical wave is moving W toward the Gulf of
Tehuantepec as described above.
For the forecast, the NW swell offshore Baja California will
decay early this weekend. Otherwise, mainly moderate seas will
prevail. Fresh to strong N winds will pulse in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, mainly at night, through the weekend. Fresh to
strong SW winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California
Fri evening through Sun night due to a weakening cold front.
Winds may reach near gale force Sat night. Winds will be moderate
or weaker elsewhere.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Mainly gentle winds are N of the monsoon trough with moderate
S-SW winds S of the monsoon trough. Seas are 3-5 ft N of 05N, and
4-7 ft in SE-S swell S of 05N, except 6-9 ft offshore Ecuador to
the Galapagos Islands, highest S of the Galapagos Islands.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are offshore
Colombia and Panama, with similar activity well offshore of
Nicaragua northward due to a departing tropical wave as described
For the forecast, winds will be moderate or weaker across the
offshore waters through the next several days. The southerly
swell will gradually decay into the weekend. Otherwise, expect
mainly moderate seas.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A tropical wave along 137W/138W as also described above combined
with high pressure elsewhere N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ is
supporting fresh to strong winds from 10N to 20N and W of 130W.
Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere N of 11N and W of
120W. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. A large area of
7-11 ft seas dominates the waters W of 110W in mixed SE and NW
swell, except up to 10-13 ft in the fresh to strong wind area
with additional support from NE to E wind waves. Seas are 7-10 ft
in more pure SE-S swell S of 02N. Seas are 4-6 ft across the
remainder of the open waters.
For the forecast, the tropical wave will move W of 140W by Fri
night. Associated fresh to strong winds will diminish by Sat.
Winds of moderate or weaker will prevail elsewhere through the
next several days. The elevated seas W of 110W will gradually
decay Fri through the weekend. The southerly swell will decay
slightly by the end of the weekend, however 7-9 ft seas will
linger S of the Equator through early next week.