AXPZ20 KNHC 242040
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Mar 24 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Pacific Significant Swell Event: Data from several altimeter
satellite passes hint of combined seas of 10 to 14 ft over much
of the tropical Pacific from 08N to 20N between 120W and 140W.
This is in an area of fresh to strong trade winds. Seas generated
from the large area of trades are mixing with longer-period NW
swell. The winds will diminish slightly, allowing the wave
heights to subside below 12 ft through late Sun. Large NW swell
to 14 ft will also impact the waters off Baja California Norte
late Sat into Sun, but this will also subside through late Sun.
Looking ahead, yet another NW to N swell event with seas of 12 ft
or greater may propagate south of 30N by the middle of next week
behind a weakening cold front.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 09N83W to 06N100W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N100W to 03N120W to 03N140W. No significant
convection is evident at this time.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge extends from 1030 mb high pressure near 37N130W
to Baja California Sur. Recent scatterometer satellite data
indicates a broad swath of fresh to strong winds on the periphery
of the high pressure. Specifically, this includes northerly
winds off Baja California, where wave heights are 8 to 11 ft with
a component of long period NW swell. Fresh to locally strong N
winds are also evident over the southern portion of the Gulf of
California, and off Cabo Corrientes. Wave heights may be reaching
as high as 7 to 10 ft between Cabo Corrientes and Los Cabos.
Elsewhere farther south, light breezes and moderate wave heights
are noted. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico and Central
America appears to be less dense than it has been in past days,
although moderate restrictions to visibility are still possible
in localized areas.
For the forecast, strong high pressure will remain in control of
the weather pattern across the region through early next week.
Expect fresh to locally strong NW to N winds through Sat night,
with pulses of fresh to locally strong winds also over the
southern Gulf of California and near Cabo Corrientes. NW swell of
8 to 11 ft offshore Baja California will linger into Sat. This
will be reinforced by another group of NW swell expected to reach
the waters north of Punta Eugenia by Sat afternoon with seas of
10 to 14 ft, with the highest wave beyond 90 nm. This swell will
decay late Sun. Looking ahead, fresh to strong SW to W winds may
develop in the northern Gulf of California Wed ahead of an
approaching cold front.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A ridge north of the area continues to support fresh to briefly
strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo and adjacent waters
offshore Nicaragua, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Moderate N winds
extend from the Gulf of Panama southward to near 05N, including
near the Azuero Peninsula, along with 3 to 5 ft seas per an
altimeter satellite pass earlier this afternoon. Mainly light to
gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas in mainly SW swell prevail
elsewhere. Smoke from agricultural fires over Central America is
leading may be a little less than in the past several days.
For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse across
the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua mainly at night
through from Sat night through mid week. Gentle to moderate winds
and slight seas will prevail elsewhere through the forecast
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see Special Features section above for details on a
significant swell event over the west-central waters.
Strong high pressure persists across the forecast waters north of
20N. This pattern is supporting a large area of fresh to strong
trades, mainly from around 10N to 25N between 120W and 140W.
Seas are 10 to 14 ft across this area, in mixed NE wind waves and
long- period NW to N swell. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of
7 to 10 ft are elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west of 110W,
with gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed S and
NW swell across the remainder of the area.
For the forecast, as high pressure continues to build across the
forecast region, the aerial extent and strength of trade winds
will increase across the forecast waters. Expect fresh to strong
winds covering roughly the waters from 07N to 25N west of 115W
by this evening. The area of fresh to strong winds will diminish
Sun as the high pressure weakens ahead of a cold front
approaching from the northwest. Mainly gentle to moderate winds
and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. The cold
front is forecast to move across the waters north of 25N Tue and