246 
AXPZ20 KNHC 050239
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Oct 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Lidia is centered near 15.6N 109.4W at 05/0300
UTC, moving northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently around 14 ft. Numerous 
moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 390 nm in 
the NW semicircle and 30 nm in the SE semicircle. A general 
northwestward to north-northwestward motion with a reduction in 
forward speed is forecast during the next day or so. Beginning 
later Thursday, a much slower westward motion is expected. Some
slow strengthening is forecast over the next few days.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Lidia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N78W to 15N104W, then 
continues W of T.S. Lidia from 15N112W to low pressure near 
12N126 to 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
is noted from 06N to 19N between 90W and 107W, and from 11N to 
14N between 122W and 128W. Scattered moderate convection is from 
04N to 08N between 82W and 87W, and from 07N to 11N between 110W 
and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia.
Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is noted over most of 
the Mexican offshore waters to the south of the entrance to the
Gulf of California.

Outside of T.S. Lidia, surface ridging prevails across the 
offshore waters of Mexico, along with winds of moderate or 
weaker. The exception is near Lidia, where fresh to strong winds 
prevail S of 18N and W of 107W. Seas are 5-6 ft in NW swell are 
across the waters W of 110W including offshore Baja California, 
and 4-6 ft in mixed swell elsewhere in the open waters. The 
exception is near Lidia, where seas are 6-9 ft S of 18N and W of
106W. In the northern Gulf of California, seas are 1-3 ft, and 
2-4 ft in the southern Gulf of California. 

For the forecast,

Lidia will move to near 16N110W Thu afternoon, 16N111W Fri 
afternoon, 16N113W Sat afternoon, 16N114.5W Sun afternoon, and 
near 16.5N115W Mon afternoon. NHC is forecasting Lidia to be a 60
kt tropical storm Sat through Mon. Elsewhere, fresh to strong 
winds may pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night through Sun 
morning. 

Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere through Sat along 
with mainly moderate seas. Looking ahead, a large, elongated 
area of showers and thunderstorms located well south of the coast
of Guatemala is associated with a trough of low pressure. 
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development during the next several days, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week 
while the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward. This 
system should be located to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
by Sunday and Sunday night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Mainly moderate SW winds are occurring to the south of the 
monsoon trough, locally fresh from 07N to 10N, west of 88W. 
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 5-7 ft in S 
swell across the offshore waters, except for 6-9 ft between
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring across much of the offshore waters
from Colombia WNW.

For the forecast, winds will be moderate or weaker across the 
offshore waters through most of the week, except for locally 
fresh SW winds from 06N to 10N, west of 88W through this evening.
Long- period southerly swell will continue offshore Ecuador to 
the Galapagos Islands through early Thu, with mainly moderate 
seas elsewhere. Looking ahead, a large, elongated area of showers
and thunderstorms located well south of the coast of Guatemala 
is associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental 
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development 
during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely
to form this weekend or early next week while the disturbance 
moves slowly west-northwestward.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia.

Elsewhere, an 1007 mb area of low pressure located about 1200 
nautical miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja 
California peninsula near 12N126W is producing disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms.

Convection with that low is described above. Moderate to fresh 
NE to ENE winds and seas of 7 to 8 ft extend from the low 
northward to 20N, between 120W and 130W. Mainly gentle to
moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the open waters, 
except for fresh S to SW winds S of 13N between 102W and 125W. 
Seas are 7-9 ft in southerly swell S of 11N between 95W and 
132W. Seas of mainly 5-7 ft in mixed swell prevail elsewhere, 
except N swell north of 12N.

For the forecast,

Lidia will move to near 16N110W Thu afternoon, 16N111W Fri 
afternoon, 16N113W Sat afternoon, 16N114.5W Sun afternoon, and 
near 16.5N115W Mon afternoon. NHC is forecasting Lidia to be a 60
kt tropical storm Sat through Mon.

Meanwhile, development of the low embedded in the monsoon trough
near 12N126W, if any, should be slow to occur while it moves 
little during the next couple of days. By this weekend, 
environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive 
for further development. Winds of moderate or weaker will prevail
across the remainder of the open waters through the next several
days, locally fresh at times along and just N of the monsoon 
trough near any transient low pressure areas. Southerly swell of 
7-9 ft will wax and wane through the week and into the weekend 
from around 09N southward, decaying thereafter. A weak cold front
may drop SE through 30N140W early next week.

$$
Lewitsky