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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220227
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0245 UTC Wed May 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0245 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N85W to 11N94W to 08N115W. The ITCZ begins at that point and 
ends near 06N135W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is from 05N to 10N between 80W and 120W. Isolated 
moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between 120W and 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

The pressure gradient between a ridge west of Baja California 
and lower pressure across the SW United States and NW Mexico 
supports moderate to fresh NW winds in the offshore waters, 
except for strong NW winds within 90 nm of the coast north of 
Cabo San Lazaro. The strong winds will last until Wed night, 
while the moderate to fresh winds will prevail through Thu night.
Seas will reach to 12 ft NW of El Rosario. Winds and seas will 
gradually subside Fri.

Gulf of California: The same pressure gradient between a ridge 
west of Baja California and lower pressure across the SW United 
States and NW Mexico supports strong W to NW winds in the northern
Gulf of California. These winds will start Wed evening and 
diminish Thu. Seas will build to 7 ft. A cold front will approach 
the N Gulf of California on Sat night with prefrontal SW winds.

Smoke and haze from fires across southern Mexico could reduce 
visibilities over the southern Mexican offshore zones for at
least the next couple of days.

No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the Mexican offshore
zones over the next few days. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure gradient across the region will cause quiescent 
wind conditions for the next several days. Mixed SW and S swell 
are contributing toward combined seas of up to 8 ft in all of the
Central America, Colombian, and Ecuadorian coastal zones. 
Abundant atmospheric moisture, along with conducive large scale 
lift, will contribute to the development of scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms for the next few days over the Central
American offshore zones. 

Tropical cyclone formation is unlikely during the next couple of
days, but is possible by the weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A ridge extends east-southeastward from a 1030 mb high at 
35N140W down to the Revillagigedo Islands. The moderate pressure
gradient south of the ridge is supporting up to fresh breeze NE 
tradewinds. West of 130N between about 10-15N, the fresh breeze 
NE winds are combining with some N and SW swell to cause peak 
seas of 8-9 ft as observed by a couple of altimeter passes. A NW
swell of about 12 ft will be arriving along the 30N Wed and will
reach around 18N Fri morning before gradually diminishing. 
Additionally, a new round of SW swell will reach the southern 
boundary at 03.4S on Thu and product and cause peak seas of 
about 8 ft south of about 05N before diminishing on Sat.

Tropical cyclone formation is unlikely during the next couple of
days, but is possible by the weekend.

$$
Formosa