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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 240235

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri May 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 
11N86W to a 1011 mb low pres near 12N111W to 08N119W. The ITCZ 
extends from 08N119W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 05N to 10N and E of 94W, and from 06N 
to 10N between 110W and 130W.


Broad ridging persists over the eastern Pacific north of 18N and
west of 110W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure 
and lower pressure over central Mexico is giving way to gentle to
moderate N to NW winds across Baja California offshore waters. 
NW swell is bringing seas of 5 to 7 ft across the Baja California
offshore waters. Meanwhile, moderate SW winds are noted over the
northern Gulf of California, while light to gentle winds prevail
over the remainder of the Gulf. Seas are 2 to 3 ft at the 
entrance of the Gulf of California and northern half, with seas 
to 2 ft across the rest of the Gulf. Elsewhere across the Mexico 
offshore waters, light to gentle breezes persist with moderate
winds along the Guerrero and Oaxaca coastline. Seas range 4 to 6
ft along the southern Mexico offshore waters in NW and SW swell.
Smoke from regional agricultural fires has spread light haze 
across areas from the southern Gulf of California and southern 
Baja California offshore waters to the Chiapas region. This 
could reduce visibilities.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will begin to retreat through the
weekend as the high pressure NW of the area weakens. Moderate to
locally fresh NW to N winds will continue over the Baja
California offshore waters through Mon night. Winds in the
northern Gulf of California will pulse to strong on Fri night 
as low pressure temporarily deepens over the Colorado River 
Valley. Winds will prevail moderate to fresh through the 
weekend over the remainder of the Gulf. Light haze from smoke 
caused by agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce 
visibilities over most of the Mexico offshore waters through Thu.


Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection continues to 
impact the southern Central America offshore waters and Colombia,
N of 02N and E of 91W. This is due in part to converging SW 
winds farther offshore associated with the monsoon trough. Some 
storms could produce frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally
rough seas. 

Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are evident south of 09N, 
with light and variable winds north of 09N. Combined seas are 5 
to 7 ft primarily in S to SW swell. Smoke from regional agricultural
fires persists across the Central America offshore waters, as 
far south as Costa Rica. Medium haze can be expected along the 
coast with light haze elsewhere. This could reduce visibilities
at times.

For the forecast, moderate to strong thunderstorms will continue
to pulse over the offshore waters from Costa Rica to Colombia 
through Sat night. For waters south of 08N, winds will be 
moderate to fresh through Fri. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds 
will persist across the Central and South American offshore 
waters from Fri night through early next week S of 08N, with 
light to gentle breezes north of 08N. Light haze from smoke 
caused by agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce 
visibilities over portions of the Central America offshore waters
through tonight. 


A 1011 mb low pressure is analyzed north of the monsoon trough
near 12N111W. Convection around the low continues to diminish, 
with some activity noted within 200 nm NE of the low. Combined 
seas in this area are peaking to 6 ft.

Elsewhere, a ridge extends from 1036 mb high pressure centered 
near 37N147W, southeastward toward the Revillagigedo Islands. 
This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds north 
of the ITCZ along 07N to 20N and west of 115W. Combined seas are
7 to 9 ft from 07N to 20N west of 130W. N of 20N, winds are 
light to gentle with seas 6 to 7 ft. South of the ITCZ, moderate 
to fresh SE winds are noted W of 130W. Gentle to moderate breezes
and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the low pressure area will dissipate as it 
drifts northward to within 240 nm southeast of Socorro Island 
tonight. Convection will continue to subside as a result. Elsewhere,
the high pressure will weaken through Fri, allowing winds and 
combined seas to diminish slightly. This will continue through 
early next week before the high pressure strengthens once again. 
Little change is noted over the remainder of the area.