000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210318
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jan 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: High pressure in the western
Gulf of Mexico currently inducing gale force winds and very rough
seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will slide east tonight, allow
winds early Tue to subside below gale force briefly before a
stronger high pressure surges south into northeastern Mexico,
leading to storm force gap winds developing Tue night in the
Tehuantepec region, with winds of 50 kt and seas to 25 ft into
Wed. Gales and very rough seas will prevail Wed night, before
conditions improve slightly Thu as the second high slides
eastward. Another high pressure will build southward rapidly
toward the end of the week, possibly bringing more gale
conditions. Marine interests transiting in or near the the Gulf
of Tehuantepec this week take the necessary action to avoid 
hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters.

Gulf of California Gale Warning: High pressure building into the
SW United States will support NW to N gales over the northern
Gulf of California with seas building to 11 ft late tonight into
Tue, along with fresh to strong winds over the remainder of the
gulf. In addition, strong winds are forecast to funnel through 
the gaps in the northern Baja California Peninsula into the 
Pacific Ocean building seas to 11 ft north of Punta Eugenia on 
Tue. Conditions will improve Tue night.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at the website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 06N90W. The ITCZ 
stretches from 06N90W to 05N120W and to 10N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is present from 05N to 08N between 80W and
85W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information a Storm
Warning for the Tehuantepec Region and a Gale Warning for the
northern Gulf of California.

A subtropical ridge located west of Baja California Norte 
continues to support moderate to fresh northerly winds across the
offshore waters of Baja California. Seas in these waters are 5-8
ft, with a component of NW swell. Mainly gentle N winds and seas
of 2 to 4 ft dominate the waters in the Gulf of California and 
elsewhere offshore Mexico.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
waters of Baja California producing moderate to locally fresh 
winds with moderate seas through mid-week. Gentle to moderate 
winds and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere through 
mid-week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the area is forcing fresh to locally 
strong NE-E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo, spreading 
downstream to 90W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Meanwhile, 
moderate southerly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are found south of 
the monsoon trough, especially south of 03N. Elsewhere, gentle or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the area will
continue to support fresh to strong easterly winds in the Gulf of
Papagayo through at least late week. Seas there will build to 
8-10 ft late in the week. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Seas generated by storm 
force winds in the Tehuantepec area will propagate across the 
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador periodically
through mid-week, with seas forecast to peak around 16 ft in NW 
swell Wed and Wed night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge dominates the waters north of 20N and east
of 130W. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas persist between the
ridge and 1007 mb low pressure northeast of Hawaii near 26N145W,
north of 28N between 130W and 140W. Showers and thunderstorms 
also persist in this area. Lighter winds are evident elsewhere
north of 20N, but 8 to 10 ft NW swell is evident elsewhere north
of 20N and west of 130W. Farther south, earlier scatterometer
satellite data showed fresh to strong winds near a possible
trough along the ITCZ near 130W. Recent altimeter satellite and 
Sofar buoy data showed 9 to 11 ft significant wave heights in
that area as well, although much of that was due to NW swell. The
trough may be dampening out and allowing the winds to diminish,
but the wave heights are persisting for now. Moderate winds and
seas are evident elsewhere.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong SE winds between the 
deepening low pressure northeast of Hawaii and the ridge to the 
northeast will continue to affect the waters north of 20N and 
west of 130W through Tue. Large NW swell will continue to 
propagate into the waters west of 125W, and mix with shorter 
period seas associated with the trade wind flow over the deep 
tropics. Altogether, expect 8 to 11 ft seas across much of the 
area west of 125W through Tue night. These wave heights will 
subside to 8 to 9 ft and diminish in areal extent mid to late 
week. Moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere. By late 
week, strong NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas will reach the
eastern waters from storm- force gap winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.

$$
Christensen