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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220256
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jun 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0210 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 05N to 16N along 99W, moving west 
near 10 kt. Associated convection is modest and described below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N73W to 11.5N97W to 15N107W 
to low pres 1011 mb near 11.5N127W to 09N132W. ITCZ extends from
09N132W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered to locally numerous 
moderate to strong convection is from 03.5N to 12.5N between 82W
and 90W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 05N to 
12N between 90W and 122W, from 06N to 07.5N between 131W and 
138W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient persists across the Baja California
peninsula offshore waters supporting gentle to locally moderate 
NW winds, except for moderate to locally fresh winds along the 
coast of Cabo San Lucas. Recent altimeter data indicate that 
wave heights are in the 4-7 ft range. These conditions will 
prevail through Thu. Winds will increase across the Baja 
California Norte offshore waters Thu into the weekend as a ridge
shift eastward and builds across the region.

In the Gulf of California, gentle to locally moderate S to SE 
winds will prevail through early in the weekend. Wave heights 
will be in the 3 to 4 ft range during that period.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to develop 
south of southeastern Mexico and the Gulf of Tehuantepec in a few
days. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for 
gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
late this week or into the weekend as this systems moves WNW, or  
parallel and offshore southern Mexico. Moderate to fresh SE 
winds are forecast to develop over the Oaxaca and Chiapas 
offshores waters by Thu, and increase to fresh to strong Fri. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail south of the monsoon 
trough, with light to gentle variable winds north of the monsoon
trough. Seas continue in the 5-8 ft range in SW swell.

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are expected across the entire 
forecast area through Wed, then a gentle SW breeze will continue
into the weekend south of the monsoon trough. Long period SW 
swell across the regional waters will gradually subside through
Wed. 

Looking ahead, low pressure is expected to  develop south of 
Guatemala and the Gulf of Tehuantepec in a few days, increasing 
winds to moderate to fresh. Some gradual development is possible 
as the system moves WNW and offshore of southern Mexico.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A high pressure ridge extends  across the waters west of 116W 
and is centered on a 1030 mb high near 39N143W. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure 
within the monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting gentle to moderate 
winds north of 08N and west of 120W. Mainly moderate SW winds 
prevail south of the monsoon trough with seas ranging between 7 
to 8 ft in southerly swell. This swell will gradually subside 
through Wed night. Wave heights generated by this swell are 
expected to remain in the 7-8 ft range through tonight then 
subside to 6-7 ft through mid-week.

$$
Stripling