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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 061515

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1515 UTC Thu Aug 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.


A tropical wave axis is along 89W, north of 02N into Central 
America, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N within 180 nm of the
wave axis. 

A tropical wave axis is along 128.5W south of 18N, moving
westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
13N to 15N between 125W and 129W.

A tropical wave axis is along 137W south of 17N, moving westward 
at 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with the wave 
at this time.


The monsoon trough axis extends westward from Panama near 08N78W
across Panama and Costa Rica to 11N86W to 11N106W to 12N120W to 
10N127W. The ITCZ extends from 09N129W to 09N136W, then resumes
from 10N138W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is occurring within 120 nm of the monsoon trough E of
80W, and from 08N to 12N between 92W and 98W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 360 nm north of the monsoon trough
between 95W and 105W, and from 07N to 10N between 119W and 124W.


Moderate to fresh NW winds persist over the Baja California Norte
waters between an offshore high pressure ridge and a low pressure
trough near the Gulf of California. Based on earlier altimeter
data, seas likely peak around 7-8 ft north of Punta Eugenia.
Gentle to moderate flow prevails off the coast of Baja California
Sur. Gentle to moderate SE winds continue along the Gulf of 
California. Light to gentle winds persist offshore of southern 
Mexico, except for moderate to fresh northerly winds in the 
Tehuantepec region.

Fresh NW winds will prevail across the waters N of Cabo San
Lazaro through Sat night, then diminish Sun through early next
week. Fresh northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will 
strengthen this weekend following the passage of a tropical wave. 
An area of low pressure is expected to develop south of Mexico 
later in the weekend in association with a tropical wave 
presently near 89W. Environmental conditions are forecast to 
become increasingly conducive for development, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form early next week while the system 
moves generally west-northwestward, roughly a couple of hundred 
miles offshore of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur. 
This area has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during 
the next five days. Expect increasing winds and seas over 
portions of the offshore waters early next week in association 
with this system. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific 
Tropical Weather Outlook for more information.


Offshore convection remains active along the monsoon trough,
especially in the Gulf of Panama region and near the coast of
Colombia. Showers and thunderstorm activity is also enhanced
along a tropical wave near 89W. Generally, moderate S to SW flow
is occurring south of the monsoon trough, with light and variable
winds north of the trough. Wave heights remain 4-6 ft across the
forecast waters. 

Moderate southerly winds will persist south of the monsoon trough
for the next several days. Fresh winds will pulse across the 
Gulf of Papagayo region tonight through this weekend in the wake
of a passing tropical wave. Long-period southerly swell will 
build seas near the Galapagos Islands on Fri, then propagate 
northward through this weekend.


Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are occurring over the
waters N of 15N and W of 130W, south of a subtropical ridge axis
that extends across the northern waters. Overnight altimeter data 
indicates these trades are supporting 5-7 ft seas. Little change
in marine conditions is expected in this region over the next 
several days.

Elsewhere, long-period southerly swell will cross the equator 
Thu night, and continue propagating northward through this 
weekend. Combined seas are expected to reach 8-9 ft south of the 
equator by Fri morning. An area of freshening monsoon flow is
expected between 100W and 115W Fri night into Sat, which combined
with southerly swell will likely build seas to 8-9 ft.

Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather
Outlook for more information about the potential for tropical 
cyclone formation during the next five days.

B Reinhart