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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240942
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Sep 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Storm Newton is centered near 18.9N 112.4W at 24/0900
UTC moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45
kt. Peak seas to 11 ft within the area of strongest winds. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 75 nm NW quadrant
of the storm center. On the forecast track, Newton is expected 
to make a gradual turn toward the west and southwest during the
next 24 to 36 hours. Weakening is forecast, and Newton is 
expected to weaken to a tropical depression later today and to 
degenerate to a remnant low pressure area by late Sunday or early
Monday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for 
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N89W to 11N102W, then resumes 
SW of Tropical Storm Newton near 15N115W to 12N122W to 10N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is in the offshore waters from 
Costa Rica to Panama, in the region of Tehuantepec and from 10N 
to 15N between 107W and 130W, and from 09N to 17N between 110W 
and 135W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on T.S. 
Newton.

The remnant low of Madeline is centered near 20N124W with fresh 
NE winds within 120 nm in the NW semicircle of the low center, 
where seas are up to 7 ft. Outside of Newton, gentle to locally 
moderate NW winds are along the Baja California peninsula 
offshore waters with seas to 6 ft in NW swell. Light variable 
winds are along the Gulf of California with seas to 3 ft, seas 
higher at the entrance of the gulf. Fresh gap winds are pulsing 
in Tehuantepec with seas to 7 ft. Light to gentle variable winds
are across the remainder SW Mexican offshore waters with seas to
6 ft. 

For the forecast, Newton will move to 19.2N 113.6W this 
afternoon, weaken to a tropical depression near 19.2N 115.1W Sun 
morning, 18.9N 116.5W Sun afternoon, become a remnant low and 
move to 18.1N 117.8W Mon morning, 16.8N 119.2W Mon afternoon, and
dissipate Tue morning. As Newton moves away from the Baja 
California Sur offshore waters Sat night into Sun, moderate NW 
winds will develop in the Baja California Norte offshore waters, 
continuing through early next week. Moderate to fresh N to NE 
winds will continue to pulse at night in the region of 
Tehuantepec, increasing to fresh to strong Mon night into Tue and
continuing through early next weekend. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough 
across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters, while 
light and variable winds are north of the trough. Seas are 5-7 
ft in southerly swell across the offshore waters.

For the forecast, little chance in the current pattern is 
expected. Winds between the Galapagos and Ecuador will pulse
to fresh S to SW winds Sun as southerly swell continue to
propagate across the region. Seas to 8 ft are expected with this
swell through Mon when winds are forecast to gradually diminish
back to moderate speeds. Winds will further diminish to gentle 
to moderate by the middle of the week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features above for details on T.S. Newton. 

Outside of the remnants of Madeline, gentle to moderate NE to E
winds prevail N of the monsoon trough and W of 124W with seas of
5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail south of the 
monsoon trough with seas to 9 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the northern 
forecast waters through the weekend. Pulses of cross-equatorial 
S to SW swell will propagate across the forecast waters east of 
130W, and maintain seas to 9 ft along the equator through Mon. 
The remnants of Madeline will move westward and gradually weaken 
before dissipating today. Winds south of the monsoon trough will
freshen E of 120W by early next week.

$$
Ramos