AXPZ20 KNHC 230901
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Oct 23 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Hurricane Willa is centered near 20.8N 107.3W at 23/0900 UTC
moving N at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt.
Numerous strong convection is currently observed within 90 nm of
the center, surrounded by scattered moderate to strong
convection in bands within 210 nm of the center. Heavy rainfall
is expected along the Pacific coast of mainland Mexico from 104W
to 107W through this evening as Willa tracks NE and inland
Mexico. Large swells generated by Willa will continue to reach
the mainland Mexican coast and the southern Gulf of California
between 102W and 108W through tonight, and are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please refer
to local forecasts from the Meteorological Service of Mexico for
specific information on heavy rainfall and flash flood potential
from Willa. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for additional details.
Tropical Depression Vicente is centered near 17.2N 102.0W at
23/0900 UTC moving NNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection in bands
within 120 nm of the center and are likely causing localized
flooding along the Mexican coast. Vicente will continue on a
general west-northwestward track and weaken to remnant today and
dissipate tonight. Please refer to local forecasts from the
Meteorological Service of Mexico for specific information on
heavy rainfall and flash flood potential from Vicente. Refer to
the latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for additional details.
A tropical wave is analyzed N of 06N along 93W with scattered
moderate isolated strong convection flaring S of 08N within 60
nm of the wave axis.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends W-SW off the Caribbean coast of
Colombia at 09N76W across the northern Gulf of Panama and
northern Panama to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 09N83W,
and continues SW through a tropical wave at 07N93W then turns NW
to 13N110W, then turns SW through an embedded 1008 mb surface
low at 11.5N116W to 09N124W where scatterometer winds indicate a
transition to an ITCZ which then continues W-NW to beyond
11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
observed within 120 nm either side of lines from 08N81W to
08N91W, and from 11N99W to 13N100W. Isolated moderate to strong
convection is observed along the ITCZ within 150 nm either side
of a line from 08N135W to 11N140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
See the Special Features paragraph for details on Tropical
Cyclones Vicente and Willa.
W of the Baja california Peninsula...Moderate to locally fresh
NW flow expected through early Wed when the pressure gradient
will begin to relax. Large southerly swell from Tropical Cyclone
Willa will continue to propagate N through the waters W of Baja
reaching as far N as 26N late tonight while NW swell in the form
of 7 to 8 ft seas, propagates S across the waters N of 27N. Seas
should subside to less than 8 ft by Wed afternoon.
Gulf of California: Light, Fresh to locally strong NW winds, and
seas to 12 ft, are expected S of 25.5N through late tonight as
Willa passes S of the gulf entrance. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are
possible across the gulf waters s of 25N through the rest of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec...Fresh to locally strong northerly flow is
expected through this morning.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gulf of Papagayo...Pulses of fresh NE flow are forecast through
Light northerly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are forecast elsewhere
N of the monsoon trough, while moderate to locally fresh
southwesterly monsoonal flow, with 5 to 7 ft seas, are forecast
S of the monsoon trough through the rest of the week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Refer to the Special Features paragraph above for details on
Tropical Cyclone Willa.
A 1008 mb low near 11.5N116W will drift NW for the next several
days with fresh southerly flow, and 6 to 8 ft seas forecast
within 210 nm SE of the low. This low has a low chance of
becoming a tropical cyclone during the 5 days.
A surface high will meander near 28N138W. An area of locally
strong NE trades and 7 to 9 ft seas will persist across the
tropical waters from 10N to 17N W of 135W for the next several
days. Large NW swell in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will reach
30N140W tonight and reach from 32N130W to 20N140W on Wed night
and from 32N120W to 10N135W on Thu night.