000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142302
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Dec 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure is 
surging along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental 
mountains in the wake of an arctic cold front that is moving 
quickly across the Gulf of America. The pressure gradient 
between the high pressure and the eastern north Pacific monsoon 
trough will lead to the current fresh to near gale-force 
northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region to increase to 
gale-force beginning this evening. The high pressure will begin to 
shift eastward and weaken on Mon night. This will result in a 
slackening of the pressure gradient that will lead to winds 
diminishing below gale force during Tue morning. Rough seas will 
develop tonight and continue through Tue night, peaking around 14 ft 
(4.5 m). Conditions will improve by the middle part of the upcoming 
week.

Please read the latest High Seas issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml
for more information.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Costa Rica 
near 09N84W to 08N99W to 08N110W to 11N121W. The ITCZ extends 
to the west of a trough that is analyzed from 15N121W to 09N125W
at 10N126W and continues to 08N134W and to beyond 08N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm south of the 
trough between 82W-87W, also within 120 nm north of the trough 
between 97W-102W and between 106W-112W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. 
Please see the Special Feature section for more details.

Building high pressure north of the Gulf of Tehuantepec supports 
fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate seas across the 
basin. Elsewhere, across the rest of the Mexican offshore 
waters, a 1023 mb high center is analyzed near 29N133W. An 
associated ridge extends from the high to near the Revillagigedo
Islands. The related gradient is generally allowing for gentle 
to moderate northwest to north winds and slight to moderate seas 
over the offshore waters of Baja California, Gulf of California 
and off Cabo Corrientes. Northwest to north winds near Punta 
Eugenia and Cabo Corrientes have diminished to 10 to 15 kt.
Light to gentle northerly winds remain elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to near gale-force winds over the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec will increase to gale-force this evening. These 
gale force winds will continue through early Tue. Elsewhere, 
mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail 
through the middle of the upcoming next week. Fresh to locally 
strong northerly winds and rough seas will develop over the offshore 
waters of Baja California Norte by the middle part of the upcoming 
week as well.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh fresh northeast to east winds are in the Gulf 
of Papagayo region as high pressure builds in north of the 
Caribbean. Seas over these waters are 4 to 6 ft. Farther south, 
gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas are present 
south of 05N. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate 
seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, building high pressure north of the Caribbean
will support fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds and
moderate seas across the Gulf of Papagayo through midweek. Rough
seas will develop in the far offshore waters of Guatemala Mon
into Tue due to the Tehuantepec gale force gap event. Moderate 
to locally fresh northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama
this upcoming week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1023 mb high center is located near 29N133W. This features is 
presently controlling the wind regime over the northern waters of
the tropical eastern Pacific. The pressure gradient between the 
high and relatively lower pressure associated to a trough that 
extends from 15N121W to 09N125W is bringing moderate to fresh 
trade winds roughly from 08N to 19N and west of about 124W as 
was confirmed by a partial satellite data pass. Seas over these 
waters are in the range of 6 to 8 ft in mixed swell along with
wind generated seas. satellite imagery shows scattered moderate 
convection located to the west of the trough from 10N to 16N between 
the trough and 128W. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh southerly 
winds and moderate seas are occurring south of the monsoon trough 
and ITCZ. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are south of 
the monsoon trough, and moderate to fresh east to southeast winds 
are south of the ITCZ. Seas over these waters are 5 to 7 ft in 
southwest swell east of 99W, and in merging northwest and southwest 
swell west of 99W.

For the forecast, the aforementioned trough will move westward 
through the early part of the upcoming week while weakening.
High pressure will build further over the northern waters into 
the middle portion of the upcoming week leading to a tightening 
of the pressure gradient that will cause fresh to locally strong 
easterly winds and rough seas over much of the tradewind belt 
west of 120W. Over the eastern part of the area, fresh to strong 
easterly winds and rough seas associated with the gale-force gap 
wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will spread westward to 
near 106W from 09N to 11N Mon through Tue.  Moderate to fresh 
southwest winds along with seas to 8 ft may be near the northwest
part of the area Mon through Tue.
 
$$
Aguirre