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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



088 
AXPZ20 KNHC 150316
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Aug 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Ten-E centered near 13.4N 133.1W at 15/0300 
UTC moving W at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 
mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm 
SW quadrant. Maximum seas are 12 ft. Please read the latest NHC 
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml 
and Forecast/ Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details.

A tropical wave is along 83.5W across Costa Rica. An area of low 
pressure is expected to form in association with this wave and 
the monsoon trough in the next day or two W of Central America. 
Conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical 
depression or storm is likely to form this weekend or early next 
week while the system moves west-northwestward south of the 
southwestern coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy 
rainfall is possible across Central America this weekend.

An area of low pressure near 14N117W is associated with a nearby 
tropical wave. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted within 150 nm NW and 60 nm SE semicircles. A large area of 
strong SW winds was noted in recent scatterometer data south and 
southeast of this low. Environmental conditions are expected to 
be favorable for the development of this system and there is a 
high probability it will become a tropical depression while it 
moves slowly north-northwestward during the next few days.

An area of low pressure is centered SW of the southern tip of 
Baja California near 21N111W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted within 180 nm SE quadrant. While current environmental 
conditions are somewhat favorable, the low will reach cooler 
waters on Saturday, and the chances of the system becoming a 
tropical depression appear to be decreasing. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please the Special Features section above for more information 
on the tropical wave near 81W/82W.

A tropical wave axis is near 99W N of 01N into southern Mexico, 
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 97W and 99W.

A tropical wave axis is near 117W south of 18N, moving W at 10 
kt. 1007 mb low pressure is analyzed near 14N117W. Please see 
the Special Features section for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 09N94W to 11N105W to 
low pressure near 21N111W to low pressure near 14N117W to 
10N125W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 05N to 13N between 80W and 100W, and from 12N to 19N 
between 110W and 123W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features for details on the high chance of
tropical cyclone formation associated with low pressure near the
Revillagigedo Islands.

Recent scatterometer data shows moderate SE flow across the Gulf 
of California, and a partial pass indicates fresh to strong 
winds in the E semicircle of low pressure near 21N111W. 

The low north of the Revillagigedo Islands will bring strong 
winds and building seas to the Baja California Sur offshore 
waters tonight and Sat. Fresh to occasionally strong gap winds 
will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend. A low 
pressure area is expected to form west of Central America this 
weekend. This low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone 
by early next week as it moves W-NW offshore of the southwestern 
coast of Mexico. Expect strong winds and building seas over the 
southern Mexico offshore waters early next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Please see the Special Features section for information about the
potential for tropical cyclone formation associated with low 
pressure that is expected to form west of Central America this 
weekend. This system will bring strong winds and large seas to 
the offshore waters of Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua 
this weekend. Winds and seas will subside early next week as the 
system moves W-NW offshore of southern Mexico. 

Recent scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong S to SW flow 
offshore of Costa Rica and Panama. Seas are generally 6-8 ft in 
enhanced monsoonal flow. Fresh winds will pulse overnight across 
the Gulf of Papagayo region.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information about 
Tropical Depression Ten-E, as well as the potential for tropical 
cyclone development elsewhere across the eastern North Pacific 
basin.

Gentle to moderate NE winds prevail across the waters N of 15N
and W of 120W. Besides the areas described in the Special
Features section above, generally moderate to fresh SW monsoon 
flow prevails south of the monsoon trough. 

$$
Mundell