AXPZ20 KNHC 180241
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Nov 18 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Depression Twenty-One is centered near 11.9N 104.6W at
18/0300 UTC moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with
gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate convection from 12N to 17N
between 101W and 106W. This general motion is expected to
continue for the next few days. Little change in strength is
forecast, and the depression is expected to either dissipate or
degenerate into a remnant low within the next couple of days.
See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N94W to 11N103W,
then resumes from 12N112W to 10N116W to 10N122W. The ITCZ
extends from 10N122W to 10N130W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 06N to 10N E of 99W, and from 08N
to 12N W of 125W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure over the western Gulf of
Mexico is supporting gap winds in the region and downstream
Tehuantepec with winds reaching near gale force speed and seas
to 10 ft. Winds and seas will diminish Tue as the ridge weakens
and return flow develops over the Bay of Campeche.
Strong winds are in portions of the Sinaloa and Baja California
Sur offshores, associated with a surface trough, remnants of
Post-Tropical Cyclone Raymond. These winds are from 20N to 23N
between 108W and 111W with seas in the 8 to 12 ft range.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is also
affecting the region from 17N to 26N between 105W and 111W.
Otherwise, seas in the range of 8 to 9 ft will persist over the
remainder Baja California Sur offshore waters in NW swell. Seas
will subside below 8 ft on Mon as swell decays over the region
and the remnants of Raymond dissipate.
Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase off Baja California
Norte and over the northern Gulf of California late Tue night as
a cold front moves across the region. Near gale force winds are
expected over the northern Gulf Wed and Wed night with seas
building to 7-10 ft. Seas will build to 8-11 ft by Thu over the
waters north of Punta Eugenia.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue pulsing across the
Gulf of Papagayo through Thu, mainly during the overnight and
early morning hours. Seas will peak around 8 ft each morning.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southwest monsoonal flow will
continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama,
Colombia, and Ecuador for the next several days. Wave heights
will generally remain in the 4-7 ft range.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the Special Features section above for more
information on T.D. Twenty-One-E.
A large area of fresh trade winds prevail over the waters from
14N to 20N west of 130W. Seas peak around 10 ft within this
region of winds. NW swell covers much of the northern waters
with 8-10 ft seas as indicated by recent altimeter data. Wave
heights will subside through tonight as the swell decays, and
seas will fall below 8 ft across most of the region by Mon.