225 
AXPZ20 KNHC 191510
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Jul 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 87W from 08N northward across 
portions of Honduras into the NW Caribbean Sea, moving westward 
around 10 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted from 03N to 09N between 81W and 87W.

A tropical wave has its axis near 126W from 05N to 18N, moving 
westward at 5 to 10 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 116W and 122W, and 
from 07N to 14N between 123W and 125W.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 1008 mb low pressure located 
near the coast of northern Colombia near 09N75W across Panama 
and Costa Rica to 10N100W to 11N120W to beyond 11N140W. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 05N
between 77W and 81W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from from 05N to 09N between 88W and 101W, from 05N to 10N 
between 106W and 113W, and from 06N to 13N between 125W and 
140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong N to NE winds are ongoing in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec region, along with seas of 6 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, 
locally moderate or weaker winds continue. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in 
long-period southwest swell, mixed NW swell in the outer Baja 
California offshore waters, except slight seas in the Gulf of 
California.

For the forecast, moderate southeast winds will pulse over the 
northern Gulf of California, reaching moderate to fresh speeds 
early Sun as low pressure develops just north of the area. 
Moderate to locally fresh southeast winds will then prevail 
through Tue night as the low remains stationary. Pulsing fresh to
strong north gap winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
through Wed night as a surface trough is expected to move from 
the Yucatan Peninsula to Veracruz for the next several days. 
Afterward, high pressure over the Gulf of America will shift 
eastward, and winds in Tehuantepec will diminish to moderate to 
fresh speeds. Rough seas are forecast in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
through tonight. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas will prevail. Winds may freshen near Baja California by 
mid-week as the local pressure gradient tightens slightly.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of 
Papagayo region. Seas with these winds are 6 to 8 ft. Moderate 
southerly winds are over the waters between Ecuador and The 
Galapagos Islands along with seas of 6 to 7 ft in south to 
southwest swell. Light and variable winds are elsewhere across 
the Central America offshore waters. Seas over these waters are 5
to 7 ft in south to southwest swell. Intense convection is from 
offshore Colombia to the Gulf of Panama as described in the
Monsoon Trough and Tropical Waves sections above.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong northeast to east 
winds will continue in the Gulf of Papagayo through Wed night 
with periods of rough seas. Moderate to locally fresh winds 
associated with this gap wind event will continue to affect the 
outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala through mid- 
week. Otherwise, gentle to moderate southerly winds will continue
between Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands through Wed night 
along with moderate seas.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure is analyzed well northwest of the 
discussion area. A ridge extends from the high center SSE to 20N
and 115W. A tropical wave is south of the ridge near 126W. Winds
near this wave have increased to moderate to fresh, with seas
building to 6 to 8 ft. The pressure gradient between the ridge 
and the wave is allowing for moderate to fresh northeast to east 
winds to exist from north of the monsoon trough to 19N between 
120W and 140W. Seas over these waters are 6 to 8 ft. Gentle to 
moderate northeast to east trades are elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough and ITCZ along with 5 to 7 ft seas. South of the 
monsoon, winds are moderate to locally fresh and seas to 7 ft in 
SE swell.

For the forecast, the tropical wave currently along 126W is
located in an environment where conditions are marginally
conducive for tropical development over the next few days. As 
the area of presently-disorganized showers and thunderstorms in 
association with it move WNW at around 10 kt, there is a low 
chance of tropical cyclone formation before it reaches 
unfavorable conditions by the early to middle portions of next 
week. Otherwise, the moderate to fresh northeast to east trades 
will change little north of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ 
through early Sat, then shift to the western part of the area as 
the gradient between a tropical wave and the high pressure 
tightens. Guidance suggests that seas may reach around 9 ft with 
the tighter gradient over the western part of the area early Sun 
through Wed and with increasing winds to strong speeds. Seas will
build to around 8 ft south of the Equator and west of 105W by 
this afternoon, then lingering through the early part of next 
week.

$$
Konarik