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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212132
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue May 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near
10N86W to a 1008 mb low pressure near 11N107W to 08N125W. The 
ITCZ extends from 08N125W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate 
to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 14N between 
78W and 112W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure continues to stretch across the NE Pacific 
southeastward to near 18N114W. The ridge is supporting mostly 
moderate NW to N winds over the waters W of Baja California with
locally fresh winds around Punta Eugenia. Light to gentle winds 
prevail between Cabo San Lucas and the Revillagigedo Islands. 
Seas are 6 to 9 ft in NW swell north of Cabo San Lazaro, and 6 
to 8 ft in a mix of NW and S swell south of Cabo San Lazaro. 
Elsewhere, including the Gulf of California, light to gentle 
winds prevail, with 3 to 5 ft seas at the entrance of the Gulf 
and 2 ft or less elsewhere. Seas of 5 to 6 ft in SW swell 
dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. Smoke 
from regional agricultural fires has spread light to medium haze 
across the offshore waters over southern Mexico which could 
reduce visibilities.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate 
the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through the 
week. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds W of the Baja California 
peninsula will continue through Sat night. NW swell moving 
across the Baja California offshore waters will persist through 
Thu. Seas of 8 to 10 ft N of Punta Eugenia will continue through
Wed, then subsiding below 8 ft on Fri. Winds in the Gulf of
California could increase to moderate to locally fresh Wed night
through Sat night. Light to medium haze from smoke caused 
by agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce visibilities over 
the southern Mexico offshore waters through Wed. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection continues to 
impact the offshore waters from Costa Rica to Colombia, N of 05N
and E of 89W. These storms are bringing frequent lightning 
strikes and likely gusty winds and locally rough seas. Exercise 
caution in this area. 

South of monsoon trough around 09N, gentle to moderate winds are
noted, including the South American offshore waters. North of 
09N, light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 7 ft
across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters due to 
long period SW swell. Otherwise, seas range 5 to 7 ft across the 
rest of the offshore waters within long period SW swell. Smoke 
from regional agricultural fires has spread light to medium haze 
across the Central America offshore waters, as far south as
Nicaragua, which could reduce visibilities.

For the forecast, moderate to strong thunderstorms will keep 
impacting waters from Costa Rica to Colombia through Thu. For 
waters south of 09N, winds will be moderate to locally fresh 
through Fri. North of 09N, light to gentle winds will prevail. 
Long period SW swell bringing seas of 5 to 7 ft in SW swell will
persist across the Central and South American offshore waters 
through the rest of the week. By the weekend, winds across the 
rest of the area will be light to gentle with seas 4 to 6 ft. Light
to medium haze from smoke caused by agricultural fires over 
Mexico could reduce visibilities over portions of the Central 
America offshore waters through Wed.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1038 mb, located N of the forecast area near 
39N144W, extends a ridge across the waters N of 14N and W of 
112W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure
along the ITCZ is forcing moderate to fresh NE to E trades N of 
07N and W of 120W. Strong winds are pulsing along 12N and W of 
137W. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in this area. Northerly swell is merging
with the swell from the trade wind zone, with seas 8 to 10 ft N 
of 26N. South of 06N, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 6 to 
8 ft in merging N and SW swell prevail W of 110W. Seas are 6 to 
8 ft in mixed SW and SE swell. A 1008 mb low pressure near 
11N107W is producing fresh to strong winds with seas 8 to 9 ft.
Moderate to strong convection is also noted within 150 nm of the
low. Smoke from regional agricultural fires in Mexico has spread
light haze across the high seas N of 09N between 92N and 108W, 
which could reduce visibilities.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the 
weather pattern across the area through the week. This will 
maintain mostly moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate to 
rough seas W of 120W. Strong winds will continue through today W 
of 135W. Cross equatorial SW swell will continue to combine with 
northerly swell to dominate area waters through Wed before 
subsiding. Seas of 8 to 9 ft across the trade wind zone will 
begin to slowly subside by Wed, and subside below 8 ft by Fri. 
Haze from the agricultural fires in Mexico could reduce 
visibilities in portions of the high seas N of 09N and E of 108W.

$$
AKR