771 
AXPZ20 KNHC 241502
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jun 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 1009 mb low pressure
near 09N90W to 12N105W to 11N120W to 08N130W. The ITCZ extends
from 08N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is active north of 06N between 78W and 83W, and
from 12N to 14N between 94W and 98W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

An overnight scatterometer satellite pass confirmed strong to
near-gale force winds persisting across and downstream of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds are due to a tight pressure
gradient between modest high pressure over the eastern United
States, and 1009 mb low pressure along the monsoon trough near
09N90W. The convergence of the low level gap winds are also
supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms about 180 to 240
nm downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are estimated to
be about 5 to 7 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec accordingly.
Elsewhere, broad high pressure is control from the northeastern
Pacific north of 15N and west of 120W. This pattern is supporting
gentle to moderate breezes north of 20N except for possibly fresh
winds funneling off the coast of Cabo San Lucas. Combined seas 
are 5 to 6 ft off Baja California, 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of 
California, and 4 to 5 ft off southern Mexico outside of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec, with a component of southerly swell.

For the forecast, the strong northerly gap winds will continue 
across the Tehuantepec area through Thu as low pressure develops 
to the west of Papagayo, and become better organized as it shifts
south of Tehuantepec Wed through Fri night. Expect the fresh to 
strong gap winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
through mid week. Looking ahead, expect fresh winds and rough 
seas off western Oaxaca by late Fri, expanding to off Guerrero by
Sat as the low pressure shifts westward. Farther north, broad 
high pressure will continue to support moderate to occasionally 
fresh NW winds across the Baja California waters through Thu as 
high pressure continues to the northwest. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong E gap winds and rough seas persist across the
Gulf of Papagayo associated with a somewhat tight pressure
gradient between high pressure north of the area and broad 1009
mb low pressure along the monsoon trough near 09N90W. Maximum
seas are likely near 8 ft in the main plume of strong gap winds.  
Farther south, moderate to fresh SW winds are active south of the
monsoon trough well off the coast of Costa Rica, with 5 to 7 ft 
seas. Gentle breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas in SW swell are noted
elsewhere. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
continues off the Pacific coast of Panama associated with an 
active monsoon trough.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue 
across the Papagayo region through Wed as 1009 mb low pressure 
near 09N 90W gradually becomes better organized, and shifts 
slowly westward. The fresh to strong winds will expand across the
waters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala through Wed as the 
low moves south of those waters. Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for gradual development of this low pressure system, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this week or 
over the weekend while the system moves slowly west- 
northwestward off the coast of southern Mexico. There is a low 
chance of development within the next two days, and a high chance
within the next seven days. Cross-equatorial S swell will build 
across the regional waters Fri night through the weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad high pressure dominates the pattern over the northeast
Pacific north of 15N and west of 120W. This pattern is supporting
gentle to moderate N to NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in that 
area, except for fresh trade winds and seas to 8 ft from 10N to
15N west of 135W. Moderate S to SW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in S
to SW swell are noted south of 10N, with gentle breezes and 4 to
6 ft seas in SW swell noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are 
expected north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W through Thu
as high pressure continues to the northwest. Winds will diminish
slightly east of 130W on Wed as the high weakens. Seas north of 
10N will subside modestly through Thu. Elsewhere, mixed S and SE 
swell will move through the equatorial waters over the next 
several days, promoting rough seas to 8 ft south of 05N through 
late this week.

$$
Christensen