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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 201623

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri May 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.


A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American Gyre
(CAG) has formed across the western Caribbean and Central 
America this morning, and is forecast to shift west to 
northwestward over the next several days. This feature will 
enhance the existing SW monsoon flow, lift the monsoon trough 
northward across Central America, and transport abundant 
moisture northward. In response, convection is expected to 
become more widespread, starting today over the southern 
portions of Central America, and then gradually shifting north 
and northwestward into northern portions of Central America and 
adjacent waters. There will be the potential for locally heavy 
rainfall near the Pacific coast of Central America, and also the
eastern parts of Honduras and Nicaragua. Flash flooding and 
mudslides will be possible in areas that receive the heaviest 
rainfall. Please refer to products issued by your local weather 
service for more information. 


A tropical wave extends southward from the Gulf of Honduras 
along 87.5W across Honduras and El Salvador into the eastern 
Pacific to near 04W. Associated convection described below is
mainly occurring over water, and along the Pacific coasts of
Panama, southern Costa Rica, and shifting away from the coasts 
of El Salvador and Guatemala. 


The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N75W to 10.5N82W to 13N86.5W
to 11N114W to 07N130W. The ITCZ continues from 07N130W to beyond
06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted N of
04.5N and E of 87W, N of 06N between 87W and 96W, and from 04.5N
to 13.5N between 96W and 119W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted within 60 nm S and 120 nm N of trough and 
ITCZ between 120W and 140W.


Fresh to locally strong S to SW winds are across the northern 
Gulf of California, while moderate to fresh W gaps winds are
occurring across the remainder of the Gulf. Peak seas are 5 to 6
ft in the northern Gulf. Fresh NW winds prevail near Cabo San 
Lucas in the southern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate NW 
to NNW winds prevail elsewhere off the coast of the Baja 
California peninsula, and also from near Cabo Corrientes 
southeastward to offshore of Mexico and become fresh along the 
coast of Oaxaca. Light to gentle mainly NW to W winds are 
elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas of 5 to 8 ft in 
NW swell prevail west of the Baja California peninsula, and 5 to 
6 ft seas in long-period southerly swell are across the offshore 
waters of central and southern Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh to strong S to SW winds will prevail
across the northern Gulf of California later through early Sat 
morning. Seas are expected to peak at 6 to 8 ft this afternoon
and evening. Fresh to locally strong NW to W winds are also 
expected east of Espiritu Santo Island, and near Cabo San Lucas 
until late this morning. Moderate to locally fresh W to NW winds 
will prevail from near Cabo Corrientes to offshore Oaxaca through
Mon afternoon. Moderate NW swell west of the Baja California 
peninsula, and moderate southerly swell off the central and 
southern Mexico coast will continue through midweek next week. 


Please see the Special Features section for information on the
development of a potential heavy rainfall event.

Convergent monsoonal winds are producing scattered showers and 
thunderstorms near the coast of Panama, Colombia and southern
Costa Rica. Light to gentle winds near the monsoon trough along 
with 5 to 6 ft seas can be found over the offshore waters of 
Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Gentle to moderate S to SW 
monsoonal winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft dominate the offshore 
waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia. Moderate southerly 
winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are present near the Galapagos Islands 
and off the Ecuador shore.

For the forecast, periodic heavy showers and strong thunderstorms
associated with the developing Central American Gyre will linger
across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia 
through Sat, and Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala through at 
least Sun. Moderate to fresh SW winds across the southwestern 
offshore waters of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia 
will gradually subside to gentle by this afternoon. East to
southeast winds off the Papagayo region are going to pulse to 
fresh late Sun night through Mon morning. Moderate southerly 
swell should continue across all the offshore waters well into 
next week. 


A ridge of high pressure extend southward into the area waters
from high pressure centered over the NE Pacific, and extends
across the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west 
of 122W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 
pressure associated with the ITCZ and monsoon trough is 
maintaining moderate NNE to NE winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft north 
of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 130W, and fresh to 
locally strong NNW winds north of 24N between 122W and 136W, 
where seas are 8 to 10 ft in fresh northerly swell. Gentle to 
moderate southerly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted south of 
the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 95W, except 7 to 8 ft 
south of 10N between the Galapagos Islands and 95W. Refer to the 
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for location of the active weather 
in this area.

Fresh to locally strong northerly winds well off Baja California
Norte will subside to between moderate and fresh by Sat morning,
then increase again Mon morning. Seas in this area will also
decrease to between 7 to 8 ft by Sun morning. Southerly winds 
south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough should increase slightly to 
between moderate and fresh early next week. Seas between the
Galapagos Islands and 95W are going to drop and reach 5 to 6 ft
by Sun. Little change elsewhere in the area.