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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 230243

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0240 UTC Fri Aug 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC. 


Tropical Storm Ivo is centered near 16.9N 114.1W at 23/0300 UTC
moving NNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt.  
A motion generally north-northwest is expected during the next 
few days. Little change in strength is forecast through Friday with
weakening likely to begin by Saturday. The forecast track takes 
the center of Ivo just west of the outer Baja California offshore
waters. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for the outer 
portions of the forecast waters from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San 
Lucas, including Clarion Island. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. 


A tropical wave is near 100W north of 05N, moving W around 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 
93W and 98W.


The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 08N90W to 12N103W, then
resumes west of T.S. Ivo from 14N120W to 13N140W. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 18N
between 106W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring 
within 120 nm of the monsoon trough between 125W and 135W.


Please see the Special Features section above for details about 
Tropical Storm Ivo. Earlier satellite wind data depicted an area
of fresh to strong SE winds over the offshore waters west of 
Cabo Corrientes, between Ivo and high pressure over inland 
Mexico. These winds, combined with S to SW swell from Ivo, are 
likely producing 8-11 ft seas over the waters between Las Tres 
Marias and the Revillagigedo Islands. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted near the entrance to the Gulf of California 
from 20N to 22N between 106W and 110W. Hazardous wind and wave 
conditions, including large southerly swell, will continue 
between the coast of Mexico and Ivo through Sun as the storm 
passes near the outer offshore waters.

Elsewhere, strong southerly winds are ongoing across the northern
Gulf of California to the east of a trough analyzed over Baja
California. Fresh to strong winds will persist over the Gulf
through Fri night, with seas generally running 5-7 ft. The local
pressure gradient will relax by Sat, which will allow winds over
the northern and central Gulf to diminish through the weekend.
Over the southern Gulf, moderate to fresh NW winds will develop
this weekend as a trough expands northward along the Mexican 
coast from low pressure expected to develop near Cabo Corrientes.
Looking ahead, NW winds will strengthen to fresh speeds off the 
coast of Baja California Sur early next week.


A weak pressure gradient across the region will result in mainly
gentle to moderate winds for the next several days. Long period, 
cross-equatorial SW swell will continue to impact the waters 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Fri, supporting 
6-7 ft seas over the southern waters.


Please see the Special Features section above for details about
Tropical Storm Ivo.

High pressure located near 31N136W maintains a broad ridge 
across the forecast waters north of 20N. Earlier scatterometer
data indicated moderate NE trade winds prevailed across the
northern waters. These conditions will persist through the next 
couple days while high pressure slowly moves westward. Elsewhere,
a broad area of fresh to strong SW to W winds persists south of 
Ivo and the monsoon trough. The resulting long fetch has allowed
seas to build to 8-11 ft well SE of the center of Ivo. As the 
monsoon trough west of the storm continues to lift northward, 
the enhanced monsoonal flow combined with mixed swell will 
maintain 8-10 ft seas along the southern periphery of Ivo through