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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280841
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Jan 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move 
across the Gulf of Mexico today. High pressure will build in the
wake of the front. The tightening pressure gradient between this
area of building high pressure and the equatorial trough in the 
eastern north Pacific will usher in a strong gale- force gap wind
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will increase to gale- 
force this evening, and peak as a strong gale late tonight and
and Sat. Winds are expected to diminish below gale force Sun 
afternoon, but remain strong through Sun night. Seas will peak 
near 18 ft with a large area of 12 ft reaching to as far as 
10N100W. Please read the latest NWS Offshore Zones Forecast 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 06N104W. The ITCZ extends
from 06N140W to 09N120W to 04N132W to 04N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 120W and
130W, and from 08N to 18N between 135W and 140W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for more information
on an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event.

Strong to near- gale N gap winds currently prevail over the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the central
portion of the Gulf of California, with moderate to fresh winds
elsewhere over the Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over 
the remainder of the open waters off Mexico. Seas are 6-7 ft 
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 5-6 ft over the open waters off 
Mexico, and 3-5 ft over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, see the Special Features section for the Gulf
of Tehuantepec gale- force gap wind event. Building high 
pressure over the Great Basin will help produce fresh to strong 
NW winds over the entire Gulf of California through Sat morning. 
Building high pressure west of California early next week is 
expected to produce increasing NW winds and building seas over 
the waters west of Baja California Norte and the N Gulf of 
California. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE gap winds are occurring across the Papagayo 
region with seas in the 5-6 ft range. Light to moderate winds 
are occurring elsewhere with seas of 3-5 ft. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse in the 
Papagayo region Sat night through Mon night. Moderate to fresh N 
winds will continue in the Gulf of Panama until Mon night. Over 
the remainder of the area, winds will remain tranquil for the 
next several days. Large NW swell from an upcoming Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gap wind event will spread to the Guatemala and El 
Salvador offshore waters Sat morning through Sun morning. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A weak high pressure ridge prevails over the waters north of 
20N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting 
moderate to locally fresh winds north of the ITCZ. Light to 
gentle winds prevail south of the ITCZ. Seas are in the 5-7 ft 
range. 

For the forecast, a surface trough is forecast to amplify over 
the open high seas near 127W during the weekend. The deepening
trough will be accompanied by fresh to strong NE to E winds 
along with building seas within an area roughly bounded from 10N-
22N and between 125W-135W. These conditions are expected Sat 
through Sun night. It is possible that a low could briefly form 
along the trough. If this transpires, then near-gale to gale 
force winds could occur within that area on Sun. Seas are 
anticipated to peak near 12 ft.

Looking ahead, on Mon and Tue strong high pressure building west
of California is expected to produce increasing N to NE winds 
and building seas north of 27N. The seas will be a product of 
both the N to NE wind waves and large long-period NW swell.

$$
AL