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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 230905

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jan 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.


Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building 
behind a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will continue to support
a gap wind event with gale force winds to 35 kt in the 
Tehuantepec region. These conditions will continue through Sun 
night, allowing for seas to build up to 12 ft today. For more 
information on this event, see the latest East Pacific High Seas 
Forecast product.


A surface trough extends off the coast of Colombia near 08N78W 
to 05N95W. The ITCZ begins near 05N95W to 09N108W, then resumes 
W of a pair of troughs near 08N132W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted within the troughs from 11N-20N 
between 110W-130W. 


Please refer to the Special Features section above for details 
on the Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle S to SW winds 
over the Gulf of California with lighter winds noted in the 
entrance to the gulf extending to Puerto Magdalena in Baja 
California Sur. Seas ranged between 2 to 3 ft in the gulf and 3 
to 6 ft elsewhere off Baja California. Otherwise, light to 
gentle variable winds are elsewhere across the SW Mexican 
offshores with seas to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, gale-force winds will continue across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec through tonight with seas up to 12 ft. Gentle to 
moderate winds will pulse across the Gulf of California today, 
with seas in the 2-3 ft range. Light and gentle winds prevail 
elsewhere through the week. The next strong cold front has the 
potential to reach the Gulf of Tehunatepec region by the end of 
the week with winds possibly reaching gale force. 


Strong high pressure over the western Atlantic extending to the 
northern Caribbean continues to support a tight pressure gradient
enhancing fresh to strong NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo 
region with seas to 8 ft. Light to gentle variable winds with 
seas to 6 ft are elsewhere, except for moderate SW winds off the 
coast of Colombia and Ecuador. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse
across the Papagayo region through early next week with seas 
building to 8 ft today. Winds will pulse moderate to fresh 
across the Gulf of Panama through early next week. Remainder of 
area, winds should remain tranquil for the next several days. 
Large NW to N swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec will impact the 
Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters tonight through Sun 
night. Strong cold front is forecast to move across the Gulf of 
Mexico and increase the chances for gale force winds to develop 
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the end of the week. 


A frontal boundary is apporaching from the NW, enhancing the 
seas N of 20N and W of 133W. A surface trough, reflection of an 
upper-level low, extends from 15N113W to 11N124W. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms are noted in the vicinity of this 
trough, mainly N of 11N between 110W-130W. 

For the forecast, the frontal boundary will stall W of the area.
Large swell will continue moving E across the NW portion of the 
basin, with seas ranging between 8-11 ft during the next few 
days. The surface trough in the vicinity of 120W will prevail 
across the area over the next few days with convection. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail across the basin through the end of 
the week.