AXPZ20 KNHC 201623
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri May 20 2022
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American Gyre
(CAG) has formed across the western Caribbean and Central
America this morning, and is forecast to shift west to
northwestward over the next several days. This feature will
enhance the existing SW monsoon flow, lift the monsoon trough
northward across Central America, and transport abundant
moisture northward. In response, convection is expected to
become more widespread, starting today over the southern
portions of Central America, and then gradually shifting north
and northwestward into northern portions of Central America and
adjacent waters. There will be the potential for locally heavy
rainfall near the Pacific coast of Central America, and also the
eastern parts of Honduras and Nicaragua. Flash flooding and
mudslides will be possible in areas that receive the heaviest
rainfall. Please refer to products issued by your local weather
service for more information.
A tropical wave extends southward from the Gulf of Honduras
along 87.5W across Honduras and El Salvador into the eastern
Pacific to near 04W. Associated convection described below is
mainly occurring over water, and along the Pacific coasts of
Panama, southern Costa Rica, and shifting away from the coasts
of El Salvador and Guatemala.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N75W to 10.5N82W to 13N86.5W
to 11N114W to 07N130W. The ITCZ continues from 07N130W to beyond
06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted N of
04.5N and E of 87W, N of 06N between 87W and 96W, and from 04.5N
to 13.5N between 96W and 119W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted within 60 nm S and 120 nm N of trough and
ITCZ between 120W and 140W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Fresh to locally strong S to SW winds are across the northern
Gulf of California, while moderate to fresh W gaps winds are
occurring across the remainder of the Gulf. Peak seas are 5 to 6
ft in the northern Gulf. Fresh NW winds prevail near Cabo San
Lucas in the southern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate NW
to NNW winds prevail elsewhere off the coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and also from near Cabo Corrientes
southeastward to offshore of Mexico and become fresh along the
coast of Oaxaca. Light to gentle mainly NW to W winds are
elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas of 5 to 8 ft in
NW swell prevail west of the Baja California peninsula, and 5 to
6 ft seas in long-period southerly swell are across the offshore
waters of central and southern Mexico.
For the forecast, fresh to strong S to SW winds will prevail
across the northern Gulf of California later through early Sat
morning. Seas are expected to peak at 6 to 8 ft this afternoon
and evening. Fresh to locally strong NW to W winds are also
expected east of Espiritu Santo Island, and near Cabo San Lucas
until late this morning. Moderate to locally fresh W to NW winds
will prevail from near Cabo Corrientes to offshore Oaxaca through
Mon afternoon. Moderate NW swell west of the Baja California
peninsula, and moderate southerly swell off the central and
southern Mexico coast will continue through midweek next week.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Please see the Special Features section for information on the
development of a potential heavy rainfall event.
Convergent monsoonal winds are producing scattered showers and
thunderstorms near the coast of Panama, Colombia and southern
Costa Rica. Light to gentle winds near the monsoon trough along
with 5 to 6 ft seas can be found over the offshore waters of
Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Gentle to moderate S to SW
monsoonal winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft dominate the offshore
waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia. Moderate southerly
winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are present near the Galapagos Islands
and off the Ecuador shore.
For the forecast, periodic heavy showers and strong thunderstorms
associated with the developing Central American Gyre will linger
across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia
through Sat, and Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala through at
least Sun. Moderate to fresh SW winds across the southwestern
offshore waters of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia
will gradually subside to gentle by this afternoon. East to
southeast winds off the Papagayo region are going to pulse to
fresh late Sun night through Mon morning. Moderate southerly
swell should continue across all the offshore waters well into
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A ridge of high pressure extend southward into the area waters
from high pressure centered over the NE Pacific, and extends
across the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west
of 122W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressure associated with the ITCZ and monsoon trough is
maintaining moderate NNE to NE winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft north
of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 130W, and fresh to
locally strong NNW winds north of 24N between 122W and 136W,
where seas are 8 to 10 ft in fresh northerly swell. Gentle to
moderate southerly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted south of
the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 95W, except 7 to 8 ft
south of 10N between the Galapagos Islands and 95W. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for location of the active weather
in this area.
Fresh to locally strong northerly winds well off Baja California
Norte will subside to between moderate and fresh by Sat morning,
then increase again Mon morning. Seas in this area will also
decrease to between 7 to 8 ft by Sun morning. Southerly winds
south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough should increase slightly to
between moderate and fresh early next week. Seas between the
Galapagos Islands and 95W are going to drop and reach 5 to 6 ft
by Sun. Little change elsewhere in the area.