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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 270742

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Sep 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.


The monsoon trough axis extends from 13N88W to 12N98W to 10N105W
to 09N120W to 08N137W. The ITCZ axis extends from 08N137W to 
08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
noted from 07N to 11N between 84W and 90W, from 08N to 16N
between 95W and 109W, and from 07N to 10N between 115W and 120W.


Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds are offshore Baja 
California Norte with gentle to moderate winds offshore Baja 
California Sur. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are 
mainly 5-6 ft in S-SW swell across the open waters, except to 7 
ft offshore Baja California Norte in NW swell. Seas are 1-3 ft in
the Gulf of California north of the entrance. Scattered showers 
and thunderstorms are offshore Oaxaca and Chiapas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N to NE winds will to pulse 
through the week and into the weekend. Moderate to fresh NW to N 
winds will continue to dominate the Baja California Norte 
offshore waters through mid-week. A broad area of low pressure 
may develop offshore southern and southwestern Mexico by the end 
of the week, potentially bringing increasing winds and seas 
across the SW Mexico waters into the weekend. Gentle to moderate 
winds will prevail elsewhere.


Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds prevail, except gentle
to moderate just offshore Guatemala and El Salvador. Seas are 4-7
ft in southerly swell offshore Colombia, and 5-7 ft elsewhere, 
except to 8 ft offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are offshore
northern Colombia to near the Papagayo region.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds will
prevail offshore southern Colombia and Ecuador to the Galapagos
Islands, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere, becoming NE-E
from the Papagayo region northward this weekend. Seas of 4-7 ft
will dominate the waters, except to 8 ft offshore Ecuador to the
Galapagos Islands through mid-week. Seas may build offshore
Guatemala by the end of the week due to a gap wind event in the
Tehuantepec region.


The 1009 mb remnant low of Newton is located near 15N120.7W with
scattered moderate to strong convection within 90 nm of the 
center, mainly in the southwest semicircle. A surface trough 
extends from 21N138W to 14N125W. High pressure is north of the 
trough centered near 29N134W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds
and 4-5 ft seas in mixed swell are under the high north of 26N 
and west of 119W. Moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds are 
northeast of the trough to 120W or so, along with 6-7 ft seas. 
Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 7-10 ft are south 
of the monsoon trough to the Equator between 90W and 120W,
locally strong from 06N to 11N between 97W and 104W. Gentle to 
moderate winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail elsewhere, locally to 8 ft
along 03.4S.

For the forecast, some slow development of the remnant low of
Newton is possible over the next couple of days as it moves 
generally westward over the open eastern Pacific waters. By late 
this week, environmental conditions are expected to become 
unfavorable for further development. A broad area of low pressure
south of the southern coast of Mexico has environmental 
conditions conducive for gradual development, and a tropical 
depression could form by the end of this week while the system 
moves generally westward to west-northwestward off the coast of 
southern and southwestern Mexico. This system has a low chance of
tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a medium chance
through 5 days. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate the 
northern waters through the week, while a dissipating cold front 
stalls near 30N by Thu. The moderate to fresh southerly winds and
7-10 ft seas south of the monsoon trough will diminish and 
subside towards the end of the week.