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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 031603

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1425 UTC Wed Jun 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.


...Heavy rainfall across Central America and Southern Mexico...

A Central American Gyre remains centered over southern Mexico and 
northern Central America, with the broad cyclonic circulation 
around the gyre encompassing the discussion waters N of 10N and E
of 100W, and extending across adjacent portions of the southern 
Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea. Numerous moderate 
to strong convection is noted over SE Mexico, including the
Yucatan Peninsula and the eastern Bay of Campeche. Clusters of 
moderate to strong convection are seen over the waters from 08N 
to 14N between 90W and 100W.

T.S. Cristobal, now inland over eastern Mexico, is embedded 
within the larger circulation of the gyre. Cristobal will act to 
focus additional heavy rainfall over portions of SE Mexico and 
Guatemala during the next few days. Winds flowing around the 
larger Central American Gyre will continue to advect abundant 
moisture cyclonically across portions of Central America and 
SE Mexico for the next few days. This setup will maintain a very
dangerous situation for these areas. This large quasi- 
stationary circulation has brought heavy rainfall and severe 
flooding to portions of Central America and southern Mexico 
during the past several days, and deadly flooding has already 
occurred in portions of Guatemala and El Salvador. The forecast
calls for rainfall amounts of 10-20 inches over the Mexican states
of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco and Yucatan, with 
5-10 inches in Veracruz and Oaxaca. In Central America, portions
of Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador and southwestern Honduras are 
also likely to receive additional heavy rainfall. The rains could
lead to additional life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, 
especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to 
products issued by your local or national meteorological service 
for more details.


The monsoon trough extends from 14N97W to 1011 mb low pres near 
10.5N115W. The ITCZ continues from 09N117W to 1010 mb low pres
near 08N134W to 08N140W. Clusters of moderate to strong from 12N
to 14N between 89W and 91W, and from 08N to 12N between 96W and 
100W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
elsewhere from 09N to 13N between 91W and 96W. Similar convection
is N of 06N between 80W and 85W, from 04N to 10N W of 135W, and 
from 06N to 08N between 128W and 135W.


Please see the Special Features section for more details on the 
Central American Gyre.

Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the open waters off 
Mexico, except for fresh NW winds along the coast of Cabo
San Lucas. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range. Light to gentle winds 
prevail across the Gulf of California, where seas are in the 1-3 
ft range across interior portions, and 4-5 ft across the mouth. 

The Central American Gyre will continue to produce onshore flow 
and very active weather across the waters of southern Mexico over
the next few days. Elsewhere, high pressure will begin to build 
modestly over the northern waters of Baja this evening and then 
more significantly Fri through the weekend. Weak low press is
expected to develop across the northern Gulf of California Fri
which will produce strong SW to W winds across that area and 
build seas briefly to 5-8 ft.


Please see the Special Features section for more details on the 
Central American Gyre.

Gentle to moderate onshore winds prevail across the forecast
waters. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range in SW swell across the 
area. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is over the
offshore waters of El Salvador, with areas of moderate to 
isolated strong convection in a S to SW flow across the offshore
waters of western Panama and Costa Rica. 

The Central American Gyre centered over the northern portion of 
Central America and southern Mexico is bringing active weather 
over the offshore waters from coastal Colombia NW to Guatemala, 
which will continue over the next few days. Elsewhere, long- 
period SW swell will continue propagating across the region 
through the week.


High pressure of 1029 mb located near 36N140W extends a ridge
across the northern forecast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. 
Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are expected along the
southern periphery of the ridge and N of the ITCZ over the next
few days. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds will prevail
S of the monsoon trough. High pres will continue to build across he
northern waters through the week and act to strengthen the 
trade winds S of 20N and W of 130W over the weekend.

Southerly swell will continue to propagated across the forecast
waters mainly S of 10N-12N between 90W-120W supporting seas of 
8-9 ft. Seas will gradually subside over the next 48 hours but 
another cross equatorial swell event will reach the waters S of 
the Equator Fri night into Sat.