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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250855
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jul 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad 1009 mb low pressure located near 13N133W continues to 
show signs of organization. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 10N to 17N between 133W and 139W. A 
recent ASCAT pass depicts a large area of 20 to 25 kt winds on 
the north side of the low. Environmental conditions are forecast 
to be conducive for further development, and this system has a 
high chance of becoming a tropical depression within the next 48 
hours while it moves westward at 10 to 15 kt. Strong winds are 
expected to continue north of the center with seas up to 10 ft 
expected within 120 nm north of this low pressure area over the 
next couple of days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather 
Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 90W north of 06N, moving west at 15 to 
20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the wave 
axis.

A tropical wave is along 111W from 03N to 16N, moving west at 15
kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 
07N to 15N between 106W and 115W. 

A tropical wave is along 121W from 04N to 16N, moving west at 10
to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted near the wave
axis from 07N to 14N. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to 09N96W to 1012 mb low pressure near 13N110W to 11N118W
to 1009 mb low pressure near 13N133W to 11N140W. Aside from the 
convection listed in the Special Features and Tropical Waves 
sections, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 
03N to 10N between 77W and 86W, and from 06N to 14N between 93W 
and 103W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure south of
the area is supporting fresh to strong northerly gap winds in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are estimated to be 7 to 8 ft. 
Gentle winds with 6 to 7 ft seas are evident elsewhere off 
southern Mexico with a component of SW swell. Gentle NW winds 
prevail west of Baja California, along with 4 to 6 ft seas. An
earlier ASCAT pass showed moderate to fresh SE winds over the 
northern Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds will continue through 
early this morning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 8 ft. 
Moderate to locally fresh winds will continue to pulse in this 
region this week. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds in the northern
Gulf of California will dimish this afternoon and become gentle 
through mid week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere
through Tue night. Moderate to fresh NW winds will develop Wed 
into Thu to the west of Baja California.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure over the NW Caribbean is helping to funnel fresh NE
winds over the Papagayo region with seas to 7 ft. Moderate to 
fresh SW to W winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, well to
the west of Panama and Colombia, with seas of 7 to 8 ft. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas of 5 to 7 
ft, primarily in long period SW swell. Satellite imagery shows 
scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms offshore of Colombia
and Panama.

For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night in the
Papagayo region through Mon night, becoming gentle to moderate 
through midweek. Expect fresh SW winds south of the monsoon 
trough within the waters offshore of Colombia and western Panama 
to persist through tonight. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast
elsewhere. Moderate southerly swell will continue to impact the 
waters west of Ecuador through Mon. Enhanced showers and 
thunderstorms will persist offshore Colombia, Panama and Costa 
Rica through tonight.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features section above for information on the
1009 mb low pressure near 13N133W.

Fresh winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present from the monsoon 
trough to 24N between 129W and 140W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail 
elsewhere across the open waters. The ridge will linger to the 
north, with moderate E trades and fairly tranquil marine 
conditions expected north of the convergence zone.

$$
Hagen