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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



737 
AXPZ20 KNHC 032100
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2100 UTC Fri Apr 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from 09N74W TO 06N88W. The ITCZ continues from 
06N88W to 03N97W to 07N135W. No significant convection is noted.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from 1030 mb high pressure near 33N139W 
to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this
ridge and weak low pressure over north central Mexico is 
supporting gentle to moderate NW winds off Baja California. Light
S to SW winds persist across most of the Gulf of California, and
light to gentle winds prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas 
of 8 to 9 ft in NW swell prevails well off the coast north of 
Punta Eugenia and extend into the offshore zones within 120 nm of
the coast. Farther south, seas of 4 to 6 ft in a mix of NW and 
SW swell prevail. 

For the forecast, low pressure will form north of the area over
southern California early next week. An associated cold front
will slowly approach Baja California and the Gulf of California
through Tue. Fresh to strong SW winds will pulse into into the
northern Gulf of California ahead of the front Sun night and Mon
night. Otherwise generally quiescent conditions will persist
across the offshore waters of Mexico.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Rather quiet conditions are observed over the Central American 
and equatorial waters, with light to gentle winds and seas in the
3-5 ft range prevailing. These conditions are expected to change
little through Sat night. Early next week, a western Caribbean 
high pressure ridge is forecast to build southward. This will
tighten the pressure gradient over the area and produce fresh to
strong northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo 
region. Long-period southwest swell will reach the waters 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands on Sun. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1030 mb is centered well north of the area near
33N139W. Farther south, a surface trough is noted near 138W, 
from 04N to 10N. The pressure gradient between the area of high 
pressure and the surface trough is supporting moderate to fresh 
winds, and seas in the 7-8 ft range north of the trough to near 
15N and west of 130W. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 
ft, prevail elsewhere.

The trade wind flow will increase this evening into Sat as high 
pressure north of the area builds. Seas will build in the area of
fresh to strong trades, possibly reaching 8 to 11 ft Sat into 
Sun. The area of high pressure will weaken and shift westward 
Sun. This will enable a frontal boundary to move into the 
waters north of 25N Sun into early next week. The pressure 
gradient will loosen as the area of high pressure weakens. This 
will diminish trade winds to the moderate range, and associated 
seas will decrease over the tropical waters Mon into Tue. Fresh 
trade winds will return toward mid week as the high builds in the
wake of the front.

$$
Christensen