000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161558
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Apr 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1510 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from Colombia near 06.5N77W to 07.5N85W to 
05N100W. The ITCZ continues from 05N100W to 06.5N123W to beyond  
06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from
04N to 07N E of 92W. Scattered moderate to strong convection
remains active from 03.5N to 09.5N between 120W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Overnight scatterometer satellite data indicated moderate to fresh
NW winds across the central Gulf of California, where seas have
built to 4 to 5 ft. Fresh NW winds also persist off the coast of
Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro. This wind pattern 
continues between the subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific 
along about 130W, and lower pressure over central Mexico. NW 
swell producing seas of 7 to 9 ft continues to move through the 
Baja near and offshore waters. Gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas of 6 ft or less are elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW winds off Baja 
California will diminish through late today. NW swell of 7 to 9 
ft will continue to move across the offshore waters of Baja 
California and the Revillagigedo Islands, then gradually subside 
below 8 ft through late Wed. Gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas will persist elsewhere through Wed. Wind and seas 
will diminish further through Sat as high pressure weakens west 
of the area. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh easterly gap winds continue across the Gulf of Papagayo 
region and into the southern Nicaragua waters, extending offshore
to 91W. Seas there are 5 to 8 ft this morning. Moderate N winds 
continue in the Gulf of Panama, and extend southward to near 04N.
Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are noted 
elsewhere, except 6 to 8 ft seas to the northwest through 
southeast of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, easterly gap winds will diminish to moderate to 
fresh through Wed across the Gulf of Papagayo region and most of
the coastal waters of Nicaragua. Moderate to locally fresh N to 
NE winds over the Gulf of Panama will continue through tonight. 
Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will persist through late Wed.
Winds will diminish further through Sat as a weak pressure 
gradient develops across the local region and the western 
Caribbean. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge is in place across the waters north of 15N,
covering the waters west of 110W. The associated pressure 
gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ is supporting moderate to
fresh trade winds north of 08N and west of 110W. Fresh winds,
rough seas, and scattered showers and thunderstorms are active 
near a 1011 mb surface low persists along the ITCZ near 07N123W,
supported by a mid to upper trough to its northwest. NW swell of
8 to 10 ft continues to move through the regional waters, and is
the dominant swell as far south as 10N, mainly west of 120W. 
Southern hemispheric S to SW swell is mixing with the northerly 
swell and with the trade wind flow. 

The northerly and southerly swell groups will continue to merge 
along with shorter period easterly wind waves attributed to the 
moderate to fresh trade winds, to produce an area of 8 to 11 ft 
confused seas from 08N to 20N west of 110W. Farther east, the 
plume of E winds and associated seas from the gap wind events 
will diminish, but lingering seas will interact with SE swell of 
7 to 9 ft south of 12N between 100W and 110W. These combined seas
will subside through mid week, leaving only an area of 8 to 9 ft
seas in the trade wind belt from 06N to 12N west of 130W by late
week.

$$
Stripling